January 13, 2012

Politics - Always in Flux

In politics, things are fluid and mood swings are quite sudden. I would have voted for BJP as many times as I have voted for Congress-I. But my soft corner for BJP is turning out to be sympathy for them. They seem rudderless, leaderless and unable to come with strategies that will fire the voters to root for them in the upcoming elections anywhere else. Any other opposition party will seize the opportunity that Congress has given in the last two years- but BJP is clueless, shrinking and diminishing its voter base with mindless antics, needless oppositions to bills in the form of flimsy amendments, and stalling Parliaments with the very bills that they once supported - in Pension, Insurance and Banking reforms let alone LokPal Bills. They are becoming anachronistic in a system and in the danger of getting alienated once again in 2014. As it is I see that their bastions will significantly over-turn e.g. Karnataka. Congress-I, on the other hand, has fired a master stroke in Food Security Bill - when 75pc of the population live on less than $2 per day, what they did will be heart-warming to the masses - even if capital markets and rating agencies don't like it for the fiscal woes it brings on. Forget that, I get a strange feeling now that Congress-I is smelling chances of comeback in 2014 because of a disarrayed opposition - and they may leave no stone unturned in the 5 state-elections coming up this Feb. I always had this theory that no matter when the elections are held -even tomorrow, lets say, - Congress-I with its massive history and vintage will always garner a minimum of 10 per cent vote-share pan-India- so what they need to tweak up is the balance 10 or 15 per cent - which can be for or against them. This is what they successfully do in states like AP where the oppposition is divided and votes can be split any time with a "third" force or the balmy announcement of a second state. That is its greatest strength - and now they are at half-time and with elections in UP, Punjab, Goa etc., they will gear up better. I guess for Congress-I, TINA factor is back to work once again. And their hundreds of man-years' experience helps Congress-I more than any party. Don't mistake me or my take with love and admiration for the party - far from it. I am trying to see things as they are - hard truth for our dear opposition. Customer Feedback again is the key to learn this and not Raspberry-quoted surveys of polls. I guess everybody will want to grasp the message in the title of a popular book by Ram Charan: Know What the Customer (Voter) wants from you. The incontrovertible truth is that there has been so much of fire and litmus tests thrown at Congress-I in the last three years from scams to Anna to venom in Parliament to embarrassments for their ministers and MPs that they have seen criticism stark nakedly - hence they will be more reflexive, adaptive and hopefully, move on with greater preparedness. Look at BJP or the Left. The left has not learned the lessons from debacles in WB or Kerala and still talk like GoP politicians on matters which affect common man. The BJP, again, and let me nail this for the last time, seems to have lost its appreciation of what is good for the country. They are oppposing Good Economics and playing Bad Politics. The GST Act would have done wonders to the pricing of essential goods in the country - but everybody knows that it is Narendra Modi which is oppposing the bill and in cohort with other non-Congress-ruled states in the country. Yashwant Sinha, who leads the Standing Committee has struck down most of the bills that will generate new employment, get us FDI and eventually lift more out of poverty - but he has struck down most of these bills. This only makes them more unpopular with the Industry and the middleclass who see more danger coming from a malfunctioning parliamnent which doesn't discuss bills necessary for our good. Actually, come to think of it - the parliamentarians and the politicans in the country need a basic grounding of Economics - so that they understand the costs of decision (and indecision)! And the voters - that include the 60 per cent of the voters who exercise their right to vote and the balance 40 per cent (who don't vote and have coffee-table discussions on voting) - all should understand basics of economics. It will do wonders to their overall well-being and may increase besides the GDP their gross domestic happiness! Believe me, I can explain this later.


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