Would have liked to post a longer note - exciting these times, but time also getting more dearer than petrol. I will make it as short and clear as possible.
Lets talk about Petrol first- I had been saying that we will never stop importing crude and therefore must prioritise that over Gold imports. Petrol price rise has been increased for number of reasons - Rising deficits, escalated rise in crude over the last few months, Rupee depreciation, and need to cut subsidy bills to give some relief to the Oil-marketing companies and also the import bill. This will continue to see rise, if you believe that crude oil prices will continue to be elevated over the coming years. The sooner you understand the economics of oil - the better our reconciliation with the reality, instead of raising ruckus over everything. Our politicians and sometimes, public dont realise that everything is not in the hands of government - your land prices and corruption deals, crony capitalism and MGNREGA schemes and Aarogyasri policies - may all be but eventually market forces will catch up with everything in life thats priced including the five elements - (air)gas, water, fire (energy), earth (sand) and sky (2G/3G).
Lets talk about Gold next. At current prices of gold prices in Rupees, if you invest now, and expect to make a return, beware.If international gold prices shoot up beyond the $1600 t/oz range and go back to $1800 levels and if Rupee appreciates back to Rs.50 to a USDollar, you make "zero" return. Current higher prices of Gold in India are due to Rupee depreciation. In any case, I am not yet done with my diatribe against Gold Merchants - so we will take that up separately. The Budget Bill hasn't cut customs duty but yielded to some other concessions.
Lets now talk about Sensex. At current levels of sensex, and Rupee-Dollar exchange levels, effectively, Sensex is literally trading at 12000-13000 thereabouts because of a 20% fall in Sensex and a 26% fall in Rupee exchange. Thats a colossal opportunity still. The less said, the better here.
Lets talk about the Rupee. There are more factors at work including the relationship between Euro/Dollar and Dollar/Commodities leading to a market decline in Rupee. Last Financial Year, we attracted $64 of NRI Remiitances - the highest in the world. I am sure everybody is watching even now. Similarly, if 50% of Corporate India hasn't hedged their dollars/euros, those in the export zone will make a bumper profit in the coming quarter. That should be good news. Besides, the RBI still has huge reserves to intervene - I am sure they have the smartest forex team in the world.
Lets examine facts and see things as they really should be seen. And for God's sake, lets understand how Economics really works in our lives. "Satyameva Jayate".
Lets talk about Petrol first- I had been saying that we will never stop importing crude and therefore must prioritise that over Gold imports. Petrol price rise has been increased for number of reasons - Rising deficits, escalated rise in crude over the last few months, Rupee depreciation, and need to cut subsidy bills to give some relief to the Oil-marketing companies and also the import bill. This will continue to see rise, if you believe that crude oil prices will continue to be elevated over the coming years. The sooner you understand the economics of oil - the better our reconciliation with the reality, instead of raising ruckus over everything. Our politicians and sometimes, public dont realise that everything is not in the hands of government - your land prices and corruption deals, crony capitalism and MGNREGA schemes and Aarogyasri policies - may all be but eventually market forces will catch up with everything in life thats priced including the five elements - (air)gas, water, fire (energy), earth (sand) and sky (2G/3G).
Lets talk about Gold next. At current prices of gold prices in Rupees, if you invest now, and expect to make a return, beware.If international gold prices shoot up beyond the $1600 t/oz range and go back to $1800 levels and if Rupee appreciates back to Rs.50 to a USDollar, you make "zero" return. Current higher prices of Gold in India are due to Rupee depreciation. In any case, I am not yet done with my diatribe against Gold Merchants - so we will take that up separately. The Budget Bill hasn't cut customs duty but yielded to some other concessions.
Lets now talk about Sensex. At current levels of sensex, and Rupee-Dollar exchange levels, effectively, Sensex is literally trading at 12000-13000 thereabouts because of a 20% fall in Sensex and a 26% fall in Rupee exchange. Thats a colossal opportunity still. The less said, the better here.
Lets talk about the Rupee. There are more factors at work including the relationship between Euro/Dollar and Dollar/Commodities leading to a market decline in Rupee. Last Financial Year, we attracted $64 of NRI Remiitances - the highest in the world. I am sure everybody is watching even now. Similarly, if 50% of Corporate India hasn't hedged their dollars/euros, those in the export zone will make a bumper profit in the coming quarter. That should be good news. Besides, the RBI still has huge reserves to intervene - I am sure they have the smartest forex team in the world.
Lets examine facts and see things as they really should be seen. And for God's sake, lets understand how Economics really works in our lives. "Satyameva Jayate".
