"Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles" by Ruchir Sharma published by Penguin India. Price Rs.599.00. pp. 292.
Nonfiction interests me more than fiction. Naturally, I am delighted to introduce a book of nonfiction thats creating records in India and the world. "Breakout Nations" by Ruchir Sharma is a super-racy book giving the last word on Emerging Markets, Frontier Markets and all the nations that are trying to make it to the cut in between. Who is Ruchir Sharma? His title reads as Head of Emerging Market Equities, Morgan Stanley. But for readers of "The Economic Times", Ruchir is a well-known writer on subjects of Economics. Infact, I think Ruchir's speciality is the sweet spot between Social History, Geopolitics and Economic Affairs and most often, the vicissitudes of the capital markets are self-evident in the overlap between these affairs. And Ruchir is best equipped to write on these matters. I always thought (and now a bird in Mumbai confirms) that Ruchir Sharma is recruited by Morgan Stanley only because of his ability to write on complex subjects intertwined as above and not because he has some great degrees at Yale or Wharton or that he can decode the formulae in financial mathematics or excel sheets.
Ruchir Sharma is MS's answer to other guys who can write very well on capital markets who are held in regard by the Icons of High Street Finance. Peter Bernstein (he passed away in 1995), David Darst (again from Morgan Stanley who wrote a treatise on Asset Allocation), Barton Biggs (Morgan Stanley, yet again, who wrote on the who-and-how aspects of sharing the spoils of the World War-II). Then of course, we have Jim O Neil (Goldman Sachs - the original guy who coined BRIC with Roopa Purushottaman before Roopa was lured by our own Kishore Biyani - it happens only in India!). Ruchir Sharma is different because he uses a whole lot of qualitatative yardsticks in analysing data pertaining to who will get past the round two of the next group of nations to "break out" of the orbit of middle-income trap and make the leap into the developed markets. Ruchir Sharma makes many statisitical inferences, fine examples, anecdotes and similes, cruel objectivity, and laser-sharp observations on countries from China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, South Africa to Turkey, and other frontier nations in the continents of South/Latin America, Asia, Eastern Europe, Middle East and of course, Africa. Its breezy and page-turning even for the unitiated in matters of Economics and financial markets.
Ruchir has been writing for "Newseek" and "The Economic Times" for the past 20 years and has been kicking tyres in some part of the developing world for atleast a week of every month of those 20 years. He is most qualified, therefore, to talk with conviction interlaced with consummate ease on why and what aspects are appealing about these markets. He also writes on what aspects are not. Maybe, he has a say in the rejigging of the MSCI universe of stocks across the globe from South Korea to Turkey and from South Africa to Mexico. As someone who has the license to get under the skin of every country which wants to be the next or the new G-7 nation in some time, Ruchir does a fabulous job in giving a National Geographic -equivalent picture of every nation on the radar of the FII, Endowments of developed world and the Foreign Individual Investors. I am amazed at the insights the book gives in one read about China, Brazil, Indonesia and even about our own India. Rightly so, he gives India a 50: 50 chance to be counted as a breakout nation. Swaminathan Anklesaria Aiyer, my second-most favorite columnist from "Economic Times" has already written his repartee to Ruchir in the previous week's column in The Times. But Ruchir makes a few stunning, off-beat observations about India which should make policy-makers worry and middle-classes wary. He says, bulk of India's youth get carried away by either jobs in government or Maoist movements because of growing inequalities between the rich and the poor. And unlike in China, where the top Forbes Billionaires keep changing every few years and also their combined networth is capped at $10 Billion or so, in India, much to the chagrin of the poor and the oppressed, the same list of Billionaires is displayed year after year since the 1990s and the combined networth is in excess of $70 Billion while India boasts of probably the lowest per capital income amongst all developing nations and widening inequalities. There are other telling points, mostly objective about India and China.In fact, Ruchir's commentary on China can rattle the most die-hard bulls of that country. (Jim Rogers might re-look at the title of his book on China -"A Bull In a China Shop"). I think, Ruchir has pre-empted the "India Today" magazine's latest survey on the arrogant South India vs. the Persevering North India.
Ruchir makes some outstanding denouements on the new headwinds of world trade that call for a lot of economic negotiations between the affluent and the emerging nations. Ruchir, by virtue, of his being in a chair to hobnob with the heads of state as well as head-honchos of corporations, is able to distill a range of reports, surveys (some of them outright exclusive) and put a fascinating menu of options for Intelligent Investors of any country. He doesn't take the burden of making hypothetical statements that needed to be proved. Instead, he gives an eclectic but largely concatenated dosage of interesting and disparate data points to drive home a point that is hard to disagree with. Maybe he is good at story-telling but this is a book that concerns four-fifths of humanity in the most convincing fashion. It has few flaws and some unprovable truths but largely, the content is open-ended to let these nations decide in a passing parade who will need what to cross the rubicon. Antoine Van Agtmael was the first guy who coined the phrase "Emerging Markets", then wrote a book "Emerging Markets Century". It was like a premature baby. Ten years back, Jim O Neil wrote BRIC report - this allowed the toddler nations to feast and grow with a 450 per cent jump in the FII allocation to these countries. Now, the teenagers are turning brash and feeling self-important and simultaneously, many toddlers are crying for attention thats legitimate. Ruchir Sharma's new book is a good wakeup call to all of them - an honest and objective, intelligent and readable report card.
Penguin publishers tell me this book is already hit the second print run within one month of launch. This is going to be the best-selling Nonfiction book for 2012. Well done Ruchir.
Nonfiction interests me more than fiction. Naturally, I am delighted to introduce a book of nonfiction thats creating records in India and the world. "Breakout Nations" by Ruchir Sharma is a super-racy book giving the last word on Emerging Markets, Frontier Markets and all the nations that are trying to make it to the cut in between. Who is Ruchir Sharma? His title reads as Head of Emerging Market Equities, Morgan Stanley. But for readers of "The Economic Times", Ruchir is a well-known writer on subjects of Economics. Infact, I think Ruchir's speciality is the sweet spot between Social History, Geopolitics and Economic Affairs and most often, the vicissitudes of the capital markets are self-evident in the overlap between these affairs. And Ruchir is best equipped to write on these matters. I always thought (and now a bird in Mumbai confirms) that Ruchir Sharma is recruited by Morgan Stanley only because of his ability to write on complex subjects intertwined as above and not because he has some great degrees at Yale or Wharton or that he can decode the formulae in financial mathematics or excel sheets.
Ruchir Sharma is MS's answer to other guys who can write very well on capital markets who are held in regard by the Icons of High Street Finance. Peter Bernstein (he passed away in 1995), David Darst (again from Morgan Stanley who wrote a treatise on Asset Allocation), Barton Biggs (Morgan Stanley, yet again, who wrote on the who-and-how aspects of sharing the spoils of the World War-II). Then of course, we have Jim O Neil (Goldman Sachs - the original guy who coined BRIC with Roopa Purushottaman before Roopa was lured by our own Kishore Biyani - it happens only in India!). Ruchir Sharma is different because he uses a whole lot of qualitatative yardsticks in analysing data pertaining to who will get past the round two of the next group of nations to "break out" of the orbit of middle-income trap and make the leap into the developed markets. Ruchir Sharma makes many statisitical inferences, fine examples, anecdotes and similes, cruel objectivity, and laser-sharp observations on countries from China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, South Africa to Turkey, and other frontier nations in the continents of South/Latin America, Asia, Eastern Europe, Middle East and of course, Africa. Its breezy and page-turning even for the unitiated in matters of Economics and financial markets.
Ruchir has been writing for "Newseek" and "The Economic Times" for the past 20 years and has been kicking tyres in some part of the developing world for atleast a week of every month of those 20 years. He is most qualified, therefore, to talk with conviction interlaced with consummate ease on why and what aspects are appealing about these markets. He also writes on what aspects are not. Maybe, he has a say in the rejigging of the MSCI universe of stocks across the globe from South Korea to Turkey and from South Africa to Mexico. As someone who has the license to get under the skin of every country which wants to be the next or the new G-7 nation in some time, Ruchir does a fabulous job in giving a National Geographic -equivalent picture of every nation on the radar of the FII, Endowments of developed world and the Foreign Individual Investors. I am amazed at the insights the book gives in one read about China, Brazil, Indonesia and even about our own India. Rightly so, he gives India a 50: 50 chance to be counted as a breakout nation. Swaminathan Anklesaria Aiyer, my second-most favorite columnist from "Economic Times" has already written his repartee to Ruchir in the previous week's column in The Times. But Ruchir makes a few stunning, off-beat observations about India which should make policy-makers worry and middle-classes wary. He says, bulk of India's youth get carried away by either jobs in government or Maoist movements because of growing inequalities between the rich and the poor. And unlike in China, where the top Forbes Billionaires keep changing every few years and also their combined networth is capped at $10 Billion or so, in India, much to the chagrin of the poor and the oppressed, the same list of Billionaires is displayed year after year since the 1990s and the combined networth is in excess of $70 Billion while India boasts of probably the lowest per capital income amongst all developing nations and widening inequalities. There are other telling points, mostly objective about India and China.In fact, Ruchir's commentary on China can rattle the most die-hard bulls of that country. (Jim Rogers might re-look at the title of his book on China -"A Bull In a China Shop"). I think, Ruchir has pre-empted the "India Today" magazine's latest survey on the arrogant South India vs. the Persevering North India.
Ruchir makes some outstanding denouements on the new headwinds of world trade that call for a lot of economic negotiations between the affluent and the emerging nations. Ruchir, by virtue, of his being in a chair to hobnob with the heads of state as well as head-honchos of corporations, is able to distill a range of reports, surveys (some of them outright exclusive) and put a fascinating menu of options for Intelligent Investors of any country. He doesn't take the burden of making hypothetical statements that needed to be proved. Instead, he gives an eclectic but largely concatenated dosage of interesting and disparate data points to drive home a point that is hard to disagree with. Maybe he is good at story-telling but this is a book that concerns four-fifths of humanity in the most convincing fashion. It has few flaws and some unprovable truths but largely, the content is open-ended to let these nations decide in a passing parade who will need what to cross the rubicon. Antoine Van Agtmael was the first guy who coined the phrase "Emerging Markets", then wrote a book "Emerging Markets Century". It was like a premature baby. Ten years back, Jim O Neil wrote BRIC report - this allowed the toddler nations to feast and grow with a 450 per cent jump in the FII allocation to these countries. Now, the teenagers are turning brash and feeling self-important and simultaneously, many toddlers are crying for attention thats legitimate. Ruchir Sharma's new book is a good wakeup call to all of them - an honest and objective, intelligent and readable report card.
Penguin publishers tell me this book is already hit the second print run within one month of launch. This is going to be the best-selling Nonfiction book for 2012. Well done Ruchir.
