Book Review: To the Brink and Back

Here's the link to the book review of Jairam Ramesh's "To the Brink and Back":

http://www.telugu360.com/an-unsolicited-advice-from-pv-narasimha-rao-to-pm-narendra-modi/

What AAP Victory Means for BJP

My father had voted in every election since Nehru's last election circa 1960. He says,"Never be more patriotic than the king. Because if you are, what if the king is wrong, or bad, or corrupt, or arrogant, or dies? You will become a laughing stock." That shaped my political convictions. I have never believed in blind worship of political parties, only go with the flow or the momentum of how the performance and pros and cons stack up. 

Friends who side with BJP or Congress should realise that the pendulum of momentum keeps swinging from left to right all the time. You err once, it builds momentum the wrong way and before you realise, the ground beneath will appear shaky. I have always been predicting that because of the advent of social media and multiple ways in which opinions get built up and mobilise people's anger and frustration, successive governments after UPA won't get such luxury of ten years. BJP's own success in May elections last year was a result of a number of factors including the groundswell of middle-classes and unemployed youth against UPA government. 

In eight months, they have yet to deliver on most counts and instead of using the political capital in the honeymoon period, they went about concentrating more and more power. Instead of collaborating democratically with a non-existent opposition which has put up a weak consensus against Modinomics, they have taken the same steps they accused Cong-I of - taking the Ordinance Raj, etc. They have turned a nelson's eye to the prime accused in Sarada scam, Jagan's case, Vadhra's dealings, Sonia's corruption, swiss bank accounts, pending infra projects, reforms in corruption, etc. They promised so many sops in Andhra Pradesh where they now share power with TDP  - all of them forgotten. Which is why, the anger of the voters can be clearly seen. 62 seats out of 70 reflects the voter's mood and give whatever excuses you want - Delhi is urbana, Delhi is not Lok Sabha, Issues were different - it's a mighty slap on the face of BJP and Modi to start taking their Manifesto promises seriously. Look at the decimation of Cong-I. But BJP is not in the same league as Cong-I - they still have the mandate and the mass  momentum going for them at national level. They should take in humility lessons that the electorate has given in Delhi. Or else, the middle-class anger against corruption and crony capitalism as reflected in Delhi will grow to a national level as it showed up as a bud in Lok Sabha elections last time. Clearly, I am not writing off either Cong-I either (it will re-surface in new avatars) but AAP better dirty hands and work for their promises since now they can't complain after such massive mandate. 

BJP will face lot of headwinds and the Budget will be the single metric that will salvage some of their lost ground - as middle-classes and businesses looking at growth returning to Indian economy await hopefully. Modi will have to reboot itself better to gain acceptability as a man of actions not just as a man of eloquence. On the federal front and at the national level, AAP is the new Normal which can align lot of non--BJP forces together for some time before momentum and political capital gets dissipated. That also depends on how AAP conducts itself in the legislature. But I still can't forget what I wrote about them an year back - making token entry in the assembly like those three elected MLAs in the last scene of "Yuva". Will they grow nationwide? We have to wait and see. Congratulations and Celebrations for now! 

As far as the BJP is concerned, no big quake yet. Because Delhi Rajya Sabha elections are done with in 2012 (Delhi has 3 Rajya Sabha seats), the next election due in 2018. By virtue of their present tally, BJP is likely to gain control of Rajya Sabha only by end of 2016 with the allies and on its own by 2018. (2015 will see election for only 10 Rajya Sabha seats, 2016 - 75 seats which include 21 seats of the states where BJP+Allies are ruling the states. Add another 5 nominated seats, which normally go to the ruling party. 2017 - elections in 10 RS seats and 2018 - 68 RS seats will see elections. Hence, BJP+allies is likely to get majority in 2016 and on its own in 2018.  Based on the current tally of BJP in the state assemblies of these states, BJP can win about 38 seats.  Last year (2018-2019) of ruling by the BJP in the present regime would witness passage of all pending reform measures in the Parliament. They should just take some of the big-bang promises and deliver them religiously or else, AAP can hijack a lot of political capital in the coming years. BJP has still hope but only if it listens. Wake up and smell the coffee Modi Saab. Mann ki Baat chodo, Kaam ki Baat karo!

#BJP #LessonsforBJP #AAP #DelhiElections

Farewell Dr Manmohan Singh, history will be kinder to you tomorrow.

"Get me the number of Prof. Manmohan Singh", PV Narasimha Rao ordered his PA. His PA didn't know the number. Rao said,"I want him to be called in 10 minutes. Find out from wherever, he teaches at Delhi University." PA found his number by dialling some contacts and connected Dr Singh to Narasimha Rao.

It was 6 am. And Rao came on line to speak to Dr Singh. "Kya Professor Saheb. Bacchon ko Padhaare kyaa? Can you meet me at 9am today?" Dr Singh spoke in monosyllables of "yes" or "no" right from then. He said "yes" to Narasimha Rao's request. The meeting turned into one of India's most dramatic inflection points. For the first time, an RBI Governor whose signature appears on a one rupee note becomes India's new Finance Minister  - and the rest has earned both Narasimha Rao and Manmohan Singh a place in history books. The duo alongwith a few other hand-picked talents took decisions that transformed the economic landscape of India forever.

Dr Singh credited most of his success and boldness of decision-making to Rao's unflinching support. But when the time came for Rao to bid a goodbye to this world amidst unprecedented machiavellian drama and back-stabbing, Dr Singh, as per reliable sources did not even visit the hospital ward of Narasimha Rao before he passed out. For all the talk of "structural adjustments with a human face", Dr Singh didn't have the courage to bypass Sonia to even call on a person who he always called as his mentor.

Twenty years after Narasimha Rao cherry-picked Singh to India's most prestigious Ministerial portfolio, Dr Singh did a similar gesture in beckoning Dr.Raghuram Rajan to India, to test his erudition, prescience and academic brilliance in the laboratory of the Monetary Policy at RBI. History will judge Dr Singh in different light than the judgements passing on him now in the heat of the bittermost election just as history now sheds kinder light on Narasimha Rao's Prime Ministership long after the suitcase scams and JMIM bribery cases faded into oblivion.

While individual achievements in academics, intellectual prowess and the body of contribution to Economic thought-leadership besides the economic reforms unleashed as FM will take many more years to deep-mine, his ascent to Prime Ministership  has been his finest hour and most fallible moment. If you take the history of most Congress Prime Ministers outside of Gandhi dynasty annointed by a demagogic group of politicians, then Manmohan Singh has taken the brunt of brinksmanship and blindmanships all on himself unlike the rest. Guljarilal Nanda was always a standby PM. Whereas Lal Bahadur Shastri actually broke the back of Indira Ganshi to the point of almost driving her out of India to London because he took no nonsense from anyone, least of all encourage the nepotistic ways of Indira Gandhi.  That leaves Narasimha Rao alone who took on the most umbrageous steps of taming the Gandhi parivar, taking baby steps and later giant strides to thwart the dynastic rule in its shameless march. He was checkmated by a confederacy of dunces and a conspiracy of sycophants. That must have played out heavily in the mind of Dr Singh as he took on the role of 'The Accidental Prime Minister'. He became silent and abrogated the responsibility of the chair of Prime Ministership by being blind to all that is happening under his ecosystem.

He may have avoided the wrath of Sonia and the party colleagues but by becoming a Bakra for someone else's surreptious ways and ruthless pursuit of power without accountability, Dr Singh has earned only shame and sympathy in his last few years. It could be a "Saturn" dasa but his redemption in history can only come after time obliterates his scam-ridden second innings from public memory. If the price of silence to unbridled corruption and loot of national wealth is a tenure to India's third longest-serving Prime Ministership, Dr Singh has earned his place too in history books in more roles than what any son of a humble upbringing could have got. For that, Manmohan Singh gets my toast tonight. If only his personal integrity and scholarship and his crisis-management during the tumult of 1991 and again in 2008 had got a better say than his conscience which remained a mute spectator to the misdeeds of Congress, he would have slept better tonight.

Dr Singh's story reminds me of the quote which sums up what happens when you don't speak your mind:

First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out-- Because I was not a Socialist.
Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out-- Because I was not a Trade Unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out-- Because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me--and there was no one left to speak for me.

A sad story. But as I said, history will judge Dr Singh better than what clouds our recent memory of his achievements.