Gregory Meyer, a commentator in Financial Times wrote last weekend that Uncertainty is the only thing markets can be certain about. This is quite suggestive that we all live on the edge - and thats what the chief executives and head honchos are paid for - you will never get to do decision-making under all knowns. You have to make decisions amidst all the mayhem and clouds on the horizon. Right now, there is lack of visibility on everything to do with Policy Decisions, Economic Growth and Corporate Investment Climate - that the payoff for those taking even marginal/incremental risk is lilkely to hugely rewarding.
The story goes that FT archives threw up 2,877 articles with search word "uncertainty" in 2005 before the Subprime crisis. Now, well into 2012, there are 3,290 articles with the word "uncertainty". Which year is more critical? Or, more uncertain? Can't say much but there are always two categories of people who face uncertainty - in business, careers or anything to do with life. Those who accept uncertainty as a fact of life - and have a vision for the day after uncertainty blows over. Then there are those who have tunnel vision, see crisis in every oppportunity, get flummoxed by the half-dozen doomsday specialists - Roubini, Gross, Taleb, Mauldin, Faber and Soros - and then watch television and read newspapers that spell more bad news. Remember, the TRPs for bad news, and harbingers of bad news are always higher - these experts (who have an axe to grind for what they pontificate) command more eyeballs than what good news can attract. Remember, that for every General Motors that closed down for bankruptcy (and now allowed to revive), the market share went to few others in Automaker space. For every 99 companies or businesses that cannot escape the "valley of death", there will be one company or two or three that rises to market leadership. That hardly gets reported. Thats the way life is. I have always loved uncertainty - in markets, in life, in Chess and Black Jack, in relationships and in money matters. Uncertainty helps me focus better and get back to basics.
Those who abhor uncertainty should live in bunkers, wear Sunita Williams spacesuits, go for gold-digging, and give non-collaterized deposits to PSU or Private or foreign banks (which as Dr.YV Reddy succinctly put, will be lent at low cost to the Government whenever the government wants - which Dr Reddy says is the biggest con game going on in the world of banking today). The aim of this story is to look at uncertainty in new light - welcome it, it can benefit you if you are enterprising.
The story goes that FT archives threw up 2,877 articles with search word "uncertainty" in 2005 before the Subprime crisis. Now, well into 2012, there are 3,290 articles with the word "uncertainty". Which year is more critical? Or, more uncertain? Can't say much but there are always two categories of people who face uncertainty - in business, careers or anything to do with life. Those who accept uncertainty as a fact of life - and have a vision for the day after uncertainty blows over. Then there are those who have tunnel vision, see crisis in every oppportunity, get flummoxed by the half-dozen doomsday specialists - Roubini, Gross, Taleb, Mauldin, Faber and Soros - and then watch television and read newspapers that spell more bad news. Remember, the TRPs for bad news, and harbingers of bad news are always higher - these experts (who have an axe to grind for what they pontificate) command more eyeballs than what good news can attract. Remember, that for every General Motors that closed down for bankruptcy (and now allowed to revive), the market share went to few others in Automaker space. For every 99 companies or businesses that cannot escape the "valley of death", there will be one company or two or three that rises to market leadership. That hardly gets reported. Thats the way life is. I have always loved uncertainty - in markets, in life, in Chess and Black Jack, in relationships and in money matters. Uncertainty helps me focus better and get back to basics.
Those who abhor uncertainty should live in bunkers, wear Sunita Williams spacesuits, go for gold-digging, and give non-collaterized deposits to PSU or Private or foreign banks (which as Dr.YV Reddy succinctly put, will be lent at low cost to the Government whenever the government wants - which Dr Reddy says is the biggest con game going on in the world of banking today). The aim of this story is to look at uncertainty in new light - welcome it, it can benefit you if you are enterprising.
