How To Talk like an Economist

This year's top-selling book on flipkart is not a NYT best-seller of fiction and non-fiction. Its the most unreadable and eminently erudite book written by a D.Lit professor. Yes, I am talking about Oxford University Press's "Indian Economic Survey 2011-2012." edited and written by Dr.Kaushik Basu, the famed economist and PMO's trusted lieutenant who waxes eloquent on various data points of the Indian Economy, invented a game called Dudoku (like Sudoku, with 2*2 matrix), written and edited more than 30 odd books on Economics and its multiple constituents.

This is the last Economic Survey, as the preface states penned by Dr Kaushik Basu and the book is a raging hit on the online book stores. Priced at Rs.450/- it has the last word on the macroeconomical foundations of Indian Economy from Banking to Forex Markets, from Agriculture to Education, from Balance of Payments to Direct Taxes, and gives you a fascinating peep into the Indian Economy. I would say, reading the ES is like doing a diploma in Indian Economics. Its that profund and intense. I wish this becomes compulsory reading for everybody who uses statistics on Indian economy at the drop of a hat- from journalists, editorial writers, bureaucrats, bankers and politicians. We don't know who will replace Kaushik Basu who has been writing the story post-liberalisation reforms for several decades last. But this swan song is worthy of your time and rewards you with counter-intuitive datapoints that may help you win a debate or score a point or two.

Another good addition to give a panoramic view of statistics on India on everything from economic issues to socio-demographic issues, from which industries allow automatic approval for FDI investments, how many times was the Constitution amended, which state in India sends the maximum emigration workers (Okay, Kerala but how many?) and how much increase happened to the Chief Justice of India since, say 2005? Questions like these sound like objective questions from Competition Success Review or a Civils Prelims exam but the codification of data in 1400 pages over 32 chapters is quite a task which requires attention to detail, cogency of information and authenticity  - something that Publications Division is believed for. In a way, the first book above complements this second book. Both the books are to be kept at arm's length  - and may help you whether or not you are an Economics forecaster, politician, journalist, investment professional or a Member of Parliament. These two are the fast-track routes to gaining economical proficiency.

"Endukante...Premante" Movie Review (Telugu)

“Endukante Premante” (Because it is Love) is the new film on the block. Stars a twinkling Diva Tamanna. And energetic star Ram – who carries himself like a miniature Pawan Kalyan cum Mahesh Babu cum Ravi Teja. Produced by his Chartered Accountant uncle “Sravanti” Ravi Kishore whose family consists of CPAs and CAs and Wall Street MBAs except this movie-crazy Ram who has been on a purple patch since “Kandireega”. Who is the Director? A.Karunakaran – a creative director and Ad-Maker who was pulled into films accidentally. After a decade plus and about half a dozen movies later, he is still remembered for films renowned for rich texture and neat family entertainment values – “Tholi Prema” (First Love), “Vasu”, “Happy”, “Ulhaasanga Utsaahanga” (which became a tagline for Red FM), “Darling”. Karunakaran has got a penchant for making different films with sonorous music and ROFL entertainment that never left the patronage of Balcony audiences. He lives up to that promise in most parts with this movie with about 165 minutes of rollercoaster ride of emotions using some bizarre twists that are sometimes inexplicable and mostly inexorable. Overall, it is quite watchable but for some lazy editing.

The film’s essential theme, sorry to poop the suspense, is about two estranged lovers in one lifetime and later how they re-unite in current lifetime where one lover (Tamanna) faces a near-death experience and the never-say-die spirit of her body guides the hero (Ram) through the maze of Interlaken, Zurich and Paris to set up a climax in Hyderabad where eventually she battles for her life and comes back to life. So, its all about that spirit and mortal combat but the journey evokes shades of every movie that tested these waters and scenes are almost cut-and-pasted. You get a feeling of seeing this movie before – in the scenes and the thread of the storyline – in “Avatar”, “Magadheera”, “Aatma Bandham” , “Ghost”. The climax even reminds you of the near-tragic twist in “Vasant Kokila” (“Sadma” in Hindi) where once the body wakes up to life and the spirit of Tamanna vanishes, the subject’s life protector Ram is forgotten by Tamanna. Like in “Black” movie. There is a sequence that reminds you of “3 Idiots” where the spirit guides the man how to resuscitate a person from cardiac arrest. Rings a bell?So, its quite a complicated plot made longer because comedy, action and entertainment is enmeshed into the story. Karunakaran has got the talent to extract uproarious comedy from his actors, he gets the laughs with super ease. Despite the plot sounding implausible and bizarre, the director knits it well and creates a ruckus pre-and-post-interval. Performances by both Ram and Tamanna are vibrant and competing in scale with each other. Tamanna is indeed the surprise package in the film and she delivers her finest performance – thoroughly enchanting and professional. It is not Ram’s film, it is Tamanna’s – credit uncle and nephew for that. Almost everybody else sizzles – old and new.

There are enough punchlines for every character and that makes this film the second-most exacting in terms of A-320 Airbus-filled starcast by the director after “Darling”. Bigger than “Darling” and more daring and audacious. Kona Venkat adds a weighty presence both as a dialogue-writer and villain. Rishi as the main villain is intense too. Music director, GV Prakash Kumar, nephew of A R Rahman, is becoming a source of worry. His output is getting inconsistent, he uses the wrong notes at the wrong time. While the songs are a bit too westernized to resonate well with all classes, his BGM score needs avuncular help from Rahaman. Just because he has talent, doesn’t mean you underscore or embellish when, frankly, the best way is to do the opposite. Composing BGMs is an art- let him learn from legends like Ilayaraja and Rahaman or guys like DSP and Mani Sharma.

To sum up, this may not be Karunakaran’s best film till date but it won’t disappoint you because it’s a new genre, a fresh starcast, neat family fare and a cracker of a comedy. You can watch it once. You can watch it more had the movie been shorter by 2 reels. Maybe the director who wears a cap, has felt a surge of creativity from too many movies but it is important for this director to thrive – he may falter on the execution side occasionally but never gives a crass output or one that makes the family audiences cringe.

Tollywood's "Gabbar Singh" is one of top five grossers!

According to `Business Standard’, as on June 1, `Gabbar Singh’ (Telugu remake of Dabangg) grossed Rs.128 crores in box office collections taking it closer to Dabangg’s Rs.173 crores. This makes the remake catapult into the all-time five grossers. That’s the power of mass-masala fares and box-office magic which eludes realistic cinema. I have always had a liking for this kind of escapist cinema despite my occasional tantrums. And it doesn’t matter whether we like the movie or not, the audience poll says it all. That seals it. So, it was with `Dookudu’ or `Raccha’ or movies like `Kick’.


I am ever curious about the commercial cinema fans who flock to such fare and how it translates economically. When I watch a movie, I keep my thinking hat aside, my `Satyajit Ray’ mind at home and enjoy the flow looking at the commercial sensibilities. Yes, there are occasions we love art cinema and good classy films like `Ala Modalaindi’ but cinema is a mass medium, not an art exhibition for connoisseurs.

Unlike any other art, cinema is the only medium that doesn’t require the patron to be literate. You don’t have to be a cinema-literate as in book-literate or an art-literate or a gold-literate to buy or consume cinema. You just need a funny bone and a pulse to enjoy. Those who criticise a movie is good or bad should do keeping in mind the mass-reach of this medium – every day, 3.2 crore Indians watch cinema, pay Rs.28 per ticket on an average, and forget their foibles and problems in the three hours of watching a movie. The only time they take a break is during the Intermission time – which was first introduced in the world in the 1920s and then after the movie ends. As long as the content is non-offensive, non-sectarian and non-preachy and off-beat, a movie should get most likes.

Why am I making a mountain of this molehill of a datapoint on `Gabbar Singh’? Because I am irked by Outlook magazine’s collector’s edition of 100 years of Indian Cinema. But for making a fleeting reference to Telugu movies, there is no special mention of Tollywood or its enterprising breed. For them, Telugus are also part of `Madrasis’. If Bollywood regained its lustre over the last few years at the BO, thank the Tollywood and the Kollywood filmmakers for lending their scripts and even talent for making blockbusters out of superhits in South Indian vernaculars. Salman Khan to Aamir Khan, Akshay Kumar to John Abraham, everybody is borrowing brilliance from Tollywood or Kollywood (Tamil film industry). To under-recognise their contribution in commercial cinema is to do gross injustice to Tollywood’s contribution.

Earlier, I wrote a post on why Tollywood is better than Bollywood – I will expand on that a bit later. Right now, Telugu fans should rejoice that a regional movie has tasted resounding success crossing $22 Million at the Box Office. A guy like Salman Khan paid advance of Rs.50 lakhs for incorporating the famous `Anthakshari’ comedy sequence of `Gabbar Singh’ into `Dabangg-2. The power of ideas. The power of Tollywood. More power to you.

`Outlook’ should realise that watching a movie is not the same as going to Cannes film festival and get plaudits from pundits who make movies for themselves. Satyajit Ray films are a class apart always, no doubt, but let’s not forget that throughout his career, Ray didn’t get funding from anybody but the State Government. Cinema sense and sensibilities are two very different things. And movies like `Gabbar Singh’ have proved yet again what Box Office power can be unleashed by making sensible movies for the masses.

Here’s a toast to all those entertaining filmmakers of Tollywood – let your outlook not change even if mainstream media is not looking your way.

MAA TV vs. Gemini TV vs. ETV vs. Zee Telugu

Earlier, films used to clash only at the Box Office, on Fridays. But now, most clashes aren't  happening there. TV Channels is where the action is. Yesterday, amidst much fanfare, MAA TV has set the timing for telecast of "Dookudu", Tollywood's biggest blockbuster at 6pm Sunday. Lot of billboard advertising, radio ads and countless promos have gone into driving traffic for the film premiere which was purchased for well over Rs.5 crs. All set for 6 pm slot. But Gemini TV, AP's No.1 channel is not an easy competitor - atleast, they never let go an opportunity to nibble into rival channels' market share. They telecast another blockbuster "Kaanchana", a ghost-thriller movie of Raghava Lawrence at 3.30pm which is actually sleeping time for most Sunday TV watchers. But the climax is red-hot and must-watch for any film buff, it was stretching beyond 6pm - which made the edgy MAA TV delay the "Dookudu" telecast beyond half-hour. Last half-hour saw enormous channel-surfing as viewers were glued to the "Kaanchana" climax. Meanwhile, MAATV showed the curtain-raiser of "Dookudu" to fill in the half-hour during which "Kaanchana" ended.

The drama didn't end there. At 6.30pm, Gemini TV showed another hit of 2011, "Mr.Perfect" starring Prabhas and Kajal. That coincided exactly with "Dookudu" and the ad slots were carefully chosen not to clash with each other channel. But the movie on Gemini ended atleast 45 minutes before "Dookudu" finally got completed on MAA TV - with actors' clippings, samantha's comments and finally a re-run of the most hilarious episodes of the film stretching the run time from 6pm-10.30 pm. Only, "Ben Hur" and "Meraa Naam Joker" would have beaten that record running time. I am always intrigued by the rival strategies and counter-strategies of TV Channels in AP - they try to outdo each other. But I think, maturity-wise, MAA TV and ETV are better-off than the competitive Gemini TV. Gemini just can't give up fighting - whether its a Zee Telugu premiere or a MAA TV Blockbuster. Why do I say that? The total Ad revenue size of AP TV channels is Rs.700 crs. The prime slots take bulk of the revenue. It is therefore wise and economical for channels to vie for viewers' attention more carefully instead of making the advertisers lose money on programmes which don't get undivided atttention. The pecking order for entertainment channels in AP is as follows: No.1 Gemini TV, No.2 MAA TV, No.3 ETV and No.4 Zee Telugu. So, the race is between the top 3 really with channel share (sum of all channels in the group brand like MAA or Gemini) going upto 10-15 per cent.

Thats why the stakes are high for the top 3 but what I find intriguing is Gemini never gives in easily to the No.2 or No.3. And so, all throughout the day, yesterday, in order to tackle "Dookudu", it built steady traffic through blockbuster after blockbuster. Started with "Kick", then "Kaanchana" and then finally showdown with "Dookudu" - "Mr Perfect". Even though MAA TV now has the movie rights for the top five all-time Industry hits in Tollywood - 1. Dookudu 2. Magadheera 3. Arundhati 4.Pokiri and 5. Simha, there's a tendency to over-pay and raise the bidding stakes for producers of superhits. This is a game where the channels lose out which ETV doesn't get into. Gemini TV does get into the bidding game but doesn't over-pay. It picks one out of every four movies bid for satellite rights but ensures it stays in the competition but doesn't end up over-paying. "Gabbar Singh" the next industry all-time grosser is currently going for Rs.9 crores. We have to see who picked it.

ETV also tried its best to nibble into the viewership yesterday by airing a special program on SPB "Nenu Naa Swara Kartalu". The program took away some eyeballs from "Dookudu" in the middle. Advantage ETV and Gemini TV have over MAA and Zee is the vintage viewership and loyal base. Through old classics bought for a song and long-running musical shows and serials, they have ensured higher profitability and longer loyalties. Can you believe a movie like "Shankarabharanam" rights were bought by Gemini for Rs.1 lac only? Interesting strategies from different channels.

"Adhinayakudu" Movie Review (Telugu)

"Adhinayakudu" is a 3G wireless gift for Balayya (Balakrishna) fans - it shows Balayya in son, father and grand-father roles. Parachuri Murali is the writer-director ( I don't know which other movies he directed with a famous surname like that). The story is set in Rayalaseema backdrop but comes with a different treatment that his fans are usually used to. Harish Chandra Prasad is the patriarch who rules the hearts of the masses in many villages by getting FDI approvals for an iron-ore project in Kurnool. He convinces many and moves against many odds to get the project approved so that more people turn to employment instead of taking up sickles and bombshells. His son Rajendra Prasad takes on the responsibility of carrying out intent of the father. But the villains who don't like the good samaritans divide the father and son and what more, connive to brainwash the grandson in his infancy to kill the grandfather. This is the story that is unravelled in the end - but the story begins differently - the juvenile who grows up in Mumbai follows his roots to Rayalaseema and then the familiar climax - after lots of twists, flashback, romance, comedy and fights.


To be fair, Parachuri Murali weaves an intelligent plot with three diverse roles for Balayya and infuses life into the scripting and screenplay. The movie moves with a verve and freshness not usually associated with a Balakrishna movie. Dialogues are classy not crass, music is just about okay even though Kalyani Mallik - the less-talented music director of MM Keeravani tries hard especially in one or two numbers and OST. Lakshmi Rai sizzles with her thread-bare revelations in two songs and carries on her glamor well. The main villains led by Kota Sreenivasa Rao and Ajay do a good job. Brahmanandam comes up with a fine performance - and his comedy with the young Balakrishna masquerading as an alien from Mars is hilarious and fresh fun. Violence is also grossly toned down and so are the dialogues - they are not at all political and censorable, I am surprised they are written by somebody other than Parachuri brothers but bearing the same surname.

There are few observations on the film. In his anxiety to project all three characters in equal length, director adopts a racy track to collapse many frames and moods in quick succession - at times, it comes out good but sometimes the intensity is diluted. There is a danger, just like VV Vinayak's screenplay in "Chenna KeshavaReddy" that the characterisation goes adrift because of the need to show a screen friction between father and son, and later between son and grandson. Sometimes, you do get confused in having to take sides with the three characterisations - they never syncronise in one moment except for a fleeting phase during flashback. 15 Reels is also a bit long for a movie nowadays despite efforts to edit most scenes. Director has a talent and grip over making intelligent and sensibile cinema and for that he deserves a pat - you can watch it once for the treatment and the thrills and the diversity of roles played by an ageing hero. Even though I am not a great fan of Balakrishna, this movie shows him in better light than his movies in the past. I wonder why "Adhinayakudu" was delayed for 4 months without a buyer - it is passable fare and watchable for most of the time. I only wonder whether the fans, who seem to be calling most of the shots in Tollywood, will take an under-tone, under-stated Balayya. This is a better performance for NBK than "Srirama Rajyam".

Book Review: "Markets Never Forget" by Ken Fisher

There are a handful of books which survey the march of history and its implications for the serious long-term investor in stocks. "Devil Take the Hindmost" by Edward Chancellor is one book for the times. You have classics like "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" and "Manias, Panics and Crashes" which have gone into updated editions for every cycle downturn of the Equity asset class.

A famous cover story on "BusinessWeek" (Now "Bloomberg Business Week") came out in 1987 which lamented with a rant that's now known as an epochal error - "The Death of Equities". Financial Writers have always  found the obsession with Markets and Crashes as a soap-opera to expand the continuum of history of over 200 years of recorded market movements beginning with the late 18th Century till date. "Markets Never Forget: But People Do" is one more worthy addition to the literature on market history and the perspectives one can glean from the historical gyrations of stock prices. Who is the author? Ken Fisher, one of the few Investment Managers, who prides himself as a Forbes Billionaire Advisor for the Forbes Billionaire Club. Fisher has been the fourth-longest running columnist for Forbes Magazine and runs a firm - Fisher Investments. This is eighth book and its quite evident Ken Fisher can write well, weave facts and historical data points into a fluent narrative that is bound to encourage long-term stock investing. The timing couldn't have been better - its come at a time when the markets fear a Lehman-like moment and are getting psyched out of the cut-and-dry march of equity markets over the last five years.

Ken Fisher says that markets have always been volatile and there is never a dull moment in stock investing but one should learn how to overcome the behavioural biases that will creep into our memory and actions that tell us "This time is different" and we end up making the same mistakes that cost us money and time. He gives countless examples of moments in market history when people have shunned from the markets, got fooled by averages and generally got sandwiched between getting in and out of secular bear or bull markets. Ken Fisher gives fascinating, brick-by-brick tour of the American Stock Markets, the various phases of crashes and rallies punctuated by hundreds of mini-pulls of investor extreme reactions owing to government debt cycle ups and downs, corporate profitability fluctuations, and political bickerings. He infuses lot of authenticity by giving tabulation of all the returns, and the sharp movements of the markets in v-shaped curve, j-shaped curves, and v-w-shaped curves  --that surprised even the most maverick forecasters of the day.

Ken says that investors fail to be right most of the time because they forget the past and even refuse to learn from the mistakes of the past. They get overwhelmed by greed or fear but also forget that being greedy or fearful didn't work out for them in the past. In the process, they get head-faked by what later turns out to be normal volatility - because they forget they've lived through volatility many times before. They over-react - either too bearish or too bullish- based on some widely dispersed media report that later turns out to be highly overstated or just plain wrong and often backward.  Take for example, volatility. Ken Fisher says that contrary to what the media projects, the maximum volatility between these three asset-classes - Oil, stocks and a food commodity like Onion, was, surprise, witnessed in Onions, more than that of oil and stocks. Between 2000 and 2010, Standard Deviation for oil was 33.8% but for onions it was 211.4%. Contrast this with the SD of Stocks- a mere 19.41%. And then he constructs an argument, saying that there are other variables that are equally volatile- like inflation, government deficits, or GDP growth rates on a monthly basis - and the stock markets discount all of that and move on quite well.

What is the lesson here for investors? Ken Fisher tells us that a sense of market history is a powerful tool to help begin reducing your error rate and help begin getting better investing results. The book is divided into eight chapters with excellent examples and data tables. Each chapter highlights a dimension of history - of market averages, volatility of the asset-classes, traps in thinking, interface of politics with economics, rise and fall of bull and bear markets, and the interlinkages of the global markets. Ken Fisher is quite an intelligent and respected market commentator and a Fund Manager of repute. Few people also know that Ken Fisher is the son of the legendary of legendary Growth Investor Philip Fisher. Philip Fisher wrote the classic "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits." It is still a must-read for any serious stock investor. Ken Fisher gives a reassuring book of market history whose revelations will bring joy to anyone investing in stocks for living or retirement. Even if there are no examples from Emerging Markets, the book is spirited and comprehensive.

"Markets Never Forget (But People Do)" by Ken Fisher. Wiley India Pvt Ltd. Price Rs.399.00, pp.  216.

Advice from China, in lighter vein!

Advice to Sonia from China on handling Jagan:


1. To catch the tiger's cub, one must enter the tiger's den.

2. Do not use firewood to put out a fire.

3. Going too far is as wrong as falling short.

4. One tree does not make a forest.

5. When fortune flees even gold loses its luster. When fortune returns, even iron shines bright.

6. An idol-maker does not worship the gods: he knows what stuff they are made of.

7. A hundred men scrambling to fetch a gourd by cart will accomplish less than one man holding it in his hand.

8. An arrogant and complacent leader is sure to meet with defeat.

9. It is foolish to anger the majority, nor is it wise to do simply as you please. If your deeds displease the people, then disaster will surely follow.

10. A tyrannical government is worse than a man-eating tiger.



Advice to Jagan that never came from China:

1. Even oceans may at last run dry.

2. When you have wealth, why should you strive for more?

3. All questions have two sides.

4. Much property is a trap for the stupid.

5. Those whose ways are different cannot lay plans for one another.

6. When you see a straight piece of wood, you do not want to make it into a wheel.

7. Misfortunes never come alone.

8. Do not expose money to eyes.

9. In good times, the wise man works for the state. In bad times, he looks after himself.

10. Take care of the small things.



Advice from Sonia and Jagan to China:

1. Heroes are made by the times. (Jagan)

2. Though brothers may have private feud they fight as one against the alien foe. (Jagan)

3. To give peace to the Empire and suppress rebellion, a large sword and a long spear are necessary. What use is a pen? (Sonia)

4. The views of men of wise counsel are much the same. (Both).

5. Although I am thin in appearance, the Empire is fat. (Jagan).

6. It is harder to deal with the weeds once they have spread. (Jagan)

7. There is no victory in winning a hundred battles. There is a victory in subduing your enemy without fighting at all. (Jagan).

8. When the first indications of error begin to appear in the state, Heaven sends forth ominous portents and calamities to warn men and announce the fact. (Sonia)

9. Having a son is unlucky indeed. These days it is better to have a daughter. Your daughter can be married to your neighbour. Your son will be buried under the weeds. (Sonia)

10. Kingdoms rise and kingdoms fall, but its the common people who suffer. (Both)

- Compiled from the Little Book of Chinese proverbs. With malice towards none.