Flipkart

Flipkart was the person of the year for book-lovers in 2011 and they are doing great service by delivering books at your doorstep and even offer cash on delivery for those who dont use internet or wary of netbanking. But how long will they bleed? Two things are going against them. A tirade against them by the publishers and a backout by Amazon - the big boys of books. Second thing first, Amazon ha...s now categorically denied any interest in buying flipkart or infibeam in India - they will enter on their own. This means, flipkart will now have to manage on their own despite a One Billion dollar valuation. They have hired their own courier, outsourced cash on delivery, and branched out into mofussil and non-metro locations in the scramble to get volumes that will interest buyers. Lastly, to talk about the tirade by publishers - a few weeks back, all the publishers from Hachette and Random House to Rupa etc. have summoned the owners of flipkart to stop bleeding them and retailers by giving discounts upto 35 per cent. In some cases, the publishers are giving 35 pc discount to Flipkart while they in turn pass on 40 pc discount. Nobody is complaining because the book-buyers are benefiting. But there has to be a sustainable model - and book distribution is not such a lucrative business. While there is boom on one side, there is gloom at the retail side - which I will address separately. Thats a little update on flipkart. In Hyderabad, they do now average 2500 deliveries a day. But sustainability and cash flows will sooner or later be called into question. Thats the point any PE Investor or Suitor will ask. As far as I know, close to Rs.4000 crores of receivables is getting stuck in Educational Institutions who order books but dont have money to pay - I am talking about the Engineering/Technical Institutions who are seeing a massive payment crisis which is actually a scam in disguise. Those who wish to know can PM'me...

New Year Greetings

"Past performance may not be repeated", say fund advertisements. All the more reason, why, for enduring a tough year 2011, I believe, 2012 is going to be our most memorable year even if the Mayans believe the world will end. Mahesh Murthy rightly said - if indeed the world will come to the end - more reason to live it as your last. Forget future babble (I don't believe these predictions just as s...omebody said the world war-3 will happen in 1999), hope you have a timeful mastery over present tense happiness, lots of gratitude for things already had, self-realisation, success at work and home, health and creative satisfaction, and lots of non-facebook fond memories and good news your way. May you get drunk in 2012 on matters that dont need endorsements from Liquor brands like Smirnoff, or Chivas Regal. 2012 is already an exciting special year - Olympics in a pound-foolish nation, Elections in dollar nation, all months having minimum 29 days, food inflation at 0.42 pc (Pick your cherries tonight for free!), stock markets and real estate more likely to go higher (after hitting where they want to go lower), tax-free rates of 8.25 pc, multi-starrer movies in Tollywood and movies which have Aamir Khan as villain, super-fine books and e-books in 2012 (and I will release my list of 2011 tonight or tomorrow) , Parliament getting tested at the lowest base by the commons, and Rupee and Reforms needing new filip.Exciting to be alive into the waking hours of 2012 - the pendulum of time keeps swinging back and forth, rarely pausing at the "sweet medium" of arc. Its for us to live life fully every moment. Happy New Year friends and Have an Year that gives a good account of yourselves!

Politics - Always in Flux

In politics, things are fluid and mood swings are quite sudden. I would have voted for BJP as many times as I have voted for Congress-I. But my soft corner for BJP is turning out to be sympathy for them. They seem rudderless, leaderless and unable to come with strategies that will fire the voters to root for them in the upcoming elections anywhere else. Any other opposition party will seize the opportunity that Congress has given in the last two years- but BJP is clueless, shrinking and diminishing its voter base with mindless antics, needless oppositions to bills in the form of flimsy amendments, and stalling Parliaments with the very bills that they once supported - in Pension, Insurance and Banking reforms let alone LokPal Bills. They are becoming anachronistic in a system and in the danger of getting alienated once again in 2014. As it is I see that their bastions will significantly over-turn e.g. Karnataka. Congress-I, on the other hand, has fired a master stroke in Food Security Bill - when 75pc of the population live on less than $2 per day, what they did will be heart-warming to the masses - even if capital markets and rating agencies don't like it for the fiscal woes it brings on. Forget that, I get a strange feeling now that Congress-I is smelling chances of comeback in 2014 because of a disarrayed opposition - and they may leave no stone unturned in the 5 state-elections coming up this Feb. I always had this theory that no matter when the elections are held -even tomorrow, lets say, - Congress-I with its massive history and vintage will always garner a minimum of 10 per cent vote-share pan-India- so what they need to tweak up is the balance 10 or 15 per cent - which can be for or against them. This is what they successfully do in states like AP where the oppposition is divided and votes can be split any time with a "third" force or the balmy announcement of a second state. That is its greatest strength - and now they are at half-time and with elections in UP, Punjab, Goa etc., they will gear up better. I guess for Congress-I, TINA factor is back to work once again. And their hundreds of man-years' experience helps Congress-I more than any party. Don't mistake me or my take with love and admiration for the party - far from it. I am trying to see things as they are - hard truth for our dear opposition. Customer Feedback again is the key to learn this and not Raspberry-quoted surveys of polls. I guess everybody will want to grasp the message in the title of a popular book by Ram Charan: Know What the Customer (Voter) wants from you. The incontrovertible truth is that there has been so much of fire and litmus tests thrown at Congress-I in the last three years from scams to Anna to venom in Parliament to embarrassments for their ministers and MPs that they have seen criticism stark nakedly - hence they will be more reflexive, adaptive and hopefully, move on with greater preparedness. Look at BJP or the Left. The left has not learned the lessons from debacles in WB or Kerala and still talk like GoP politicians on matters which affect common man. The BJP, again, and let me nail this for the last time, seems to have lost its appreciation of what is good for the country. They are oppposing Good Economics and playing Bad Politics. The GST Act would have done wonders to the pricing of essential goods in the country - but everybody knows that it is Narendra Modi which is oppposing the bill and in cohort with other non-Congress-ruled states in the country. Yashwant Sinha, who leads the Standing Committee has struck down most of the bills that will generate new employment, get us FDI and eventually lift more out of poverty - but he has struck down most of these bills. This only makes them more unpopular with the Industry and the middleclass who see more danger coming from a malfunctioning parliamnent which doesn't discuss bills necessary for our good. Actually, come to think of it - the parliamentarians and the politicans in the country need a basic grounding of Economics - so that they understand the costs of decision (and indecision)! And the voters - that include the 60 per cent of the voters who exercise their right to vote and the balance 40 per cent (who don't vote and have coffee-table discussions on voting) - all should understand basics of economics. It will do wonders to their overall well-being and may increase besides the GDP their gross domestic happiness! Believe me, I can explain this later.

Amar Chitra Katha - Alive and Kicking!

Do you know about Amar Chitra Katha? Those two-dimensional multi-color comics brought out by IBH and Uncle Pai? If you were born in the 70s or 80s, you wouldn't have missed reading ACK comics or its offfspring - Tinke Comics. My boyhood dreamsof "owning" all the ACK comics ever published was realised a few years back only. Thats about 240 comics in all out of 800 comics due to a fire mishap which destroyed the artworks of the original comics. Finally, those who followed the phenomenon of ACK would recall IBH sold off the perpetual rights of the comics to a Pune-based company called Geodesic for some Rs.22 crores. That is still a low price for a priceless heritage. Now, for all those who outgrew those comics, it might please you to note that ACK P Ltd - the new publishing house for these comics is trying to restore some of the comics lost in the fire and also bringing out titles every month over the last two years. So far, they have brought out 60 odd titles anew last few years which takes the complete list of ACK comics to 300 or 315 - though the volume no. is additive and counting above 800. So, the latest volume is no.831 and is on TENZING NORGAY - the man who climbed Mt.Everest. Amongst the new titles they brought out this year - "Lord of Seven Hills", "Ganesha and the Moon", "Tales of Indra", "Vaishno Devi Temple", "Chittagong Revolution" etc. are all racy reads and still evoke that nostalgia of the old comics. I have many friends who want to acquire the collection of these books again for themselves and for their wards. I have been acquiring some of these comics with an eye to resell for profit (they are as pricey as Art works of stature) or imbue them to a library of my choice over the past few years. I must say, I now have most of the 831 comics ever printed - maybe a hundred less - but I know I will get them all sooner. What sets the new titles beginning No.780 or so from the old titles is the different approach to comic design - it combines the new techniques of graphic novels with age-old narrative style fitting into 30 pages. Hopefully, it should appeal to the Harry Potter/Tolkien-reading generation next. Which means, you will be through in 15 minutes - faster than what it takes to swallow Nachos in multiplexes. At Rs.50/- per issue, I always bet that owning an Amar Chitra Katha title beats the bat out of inflation fears - I used to buy it at Rs.1.00 or Rs.1.50 per issue. Since 1977 or so, it has gone up 50 times, higher than the CII factor of inflation used for tax calculations. I have firm belief that Amar Chitra Katha comics will live on like any other nation's story-telling comics for several thousands of millieu in India. We don't have a Smithsonian Museum equivalent in India - but ACK comics fit the bill nearly well in that slot. Ananth Pai - the creator of those comics also passed away this year - but his legacy will live on. My family and a group of friends close to my heart share legions of experiences with Ananth Pai and his wife - I will share them separately some other time. Long live Amar Chitra Katha!

Ash Chandler Show

Before "Don 2" my wife and I sneaked into the much-revered show of Ash Chandler - standup comedian and occasional singer at ITC Grand's Black Dog evening. What a show! Ash Chandler is outstanding with his lines and singing. We were proccupied with showing up at SRK's premiere and hence I missed making shorthand notes but Ash Chandler is quite a find for us with his unadulterated and rambunctious act of 90 minutes of laughter. He started the show with an attire of a Spanish singer and started giving yarns about men, marriage, women and comedy that talks below the belt. Yes, strictly for adults but Ash carried with class and consummate ease. The gags were well-rehearsed and the targets in the audience who bore the brunt of his repartees were polished off well. A few gags I remembered: 1.He asked how many in the audience were married - only nine hands went up and one of them- a lady raised both hands. Ash said: "I can tell you most of you in the room are fucking lying or you are embarrassed to admit you are married. And the lady who raised both hands - what the hell do you have in mind - madam? Do you have two husbands or what?". 2. He starts the show with a request to the audience to ask him anything in Telugu and he will reply in Telugu even though he didn't pick up the language but you have to tell the object around the stage in Telugu. So, somebody in the audience said - microphone. Ash said: microphone lu (as in plural sense of Telugu). Speaker lu, chair lu and so on. Get it? 3. He polled the audience where they come from - some said Bglor, Kolkatta, Delhi, Mumbai - He picks up Kolkattans and repeats the old joke about Chatterjees, Mukherjees, Banerjees - and said if there's a flood in Bangladesh, they will be "Refugees". 4. He adds that women are the most beautiful part and the creative part of the world and God has created them with reason and care. He then quips that there is nothing called male intuition. Everything thats intuitive is called female intuition. Which is why, when you are driving down in a car with your wife, and you are suddenly lost in thoughts, he says, only your wife can come up with a question: "I know what you are thinking." (lol). The wife seems to have a perfect premonition as to what is happening with you - and second-guessing your motives. He builds it up: If you have trouble deciphering what the lady says and asks of you - oftentimes, you will end up confessing something you never wanted to or did in the first place. (l.o.loudest). He then adds that the ladies want someone who can just listen and not understand. Which is why, if two males think about meeting - at 7.30pm- it is a short message - we will meet at 7 pm and click ok thats about it. But when you meet a lady- its more exciting - and doesn't end in half-hour. First, you have to listen to what the lady has to say about her day - how it went. How the day of her best friend went. And then her reaction to how the best friend has to say about her day went. Until then, you can drown your glasses without batting an eyelid and giving a scent of a feeling that you are not listening...you know those old jokes about women and listening, that kind..4. He has a joke or two about Hyderabad. At the outset, when he asked how many are from Hyderabad, and not many answered in the affirmative, he said, " Forget it, the guys are thinking, we are not sure whether we are from Hyderabad or not, because we are not sure which state it is the capital of? Once we know, we will let you know?". That kind. The show was non-stop funny and outrageously hilarious - there was the occasional song which the audience participated in - Ash also mimicked George Bush, Osama Bin Laden and how Stings would perform a Kolaveri Di. As a limited public speaker but an aspirational writer, I note that Ash Chandler (who has a galaxy of tabs in youtube on his video performances) knows his lines well, rehearses them painstakingly and connects with any audience superbly. Its been one starburst of an evening that we were privileged to get regaled. Both of us felt many highs even if Ash's favorite animal Black Dog was not consumed by us. Great Find and Great job! Ash.

"Don-2" Movie Review

"Don-2" is Shah Rukh Khan's second film for 2011 and could do better than "Ra.One" despite low-key publicity. Farhan Akhtar's films and scripting caliber are always something to look forward to - he rarely loses his mojo. After the success of Don, he and chum Ridesh Sadhwani seem well-determined to enhance the franchisee value of "Don" - and they do reasonably well in capturing the original mo...od of Don in this sequel. Shah Rukh Khan looks comfortable in his skin - and swagger and swashbuckle come naturally to him in the movie as he mouths many pithy one-liners - he packs a punch in many of the garbs he puts on in the film - first as a Thai prisoner (in an adorable hermit-like Samurai) and later as the metrosexual and suave Don. Treatment of the film is the same as that of the first - slow-moving but steady and slick action sequences and the song numbers that burst out lately. Bomman Irani doesn't get a role he deserves but others like Kunal Kapoor and Nawab Shah do better. Priyanka Chopra gets as meaty role as possible as a cop out to nab Don while for Lara Dutta - she doesn't get anywhere even if she shows more skin than Priyanka Chopra. The plot of the film is a little less multi-layered than "Don" as the scene shifts from Asia to Europe where Don wants to rule now. I wonder if thats what all Dons are thinking right now - Don's job is to get the plates to print the Euro in Berlin from a German Bank DCB. I wonder if thats true again - I thought Brussels office of the ECB prints the Euro - but lets leave that. The scene then shifts mostly between Zurich and Berlin for the rest of the movie and shows how the heist is performed with perfect execution by Don and team. No twist in the tail here unlike the original - and thats what leaves the fans with a uni-dimensional flavor - an uber cool James Bond project disguised as Don-2 with car chases and fights that get the gut minus romance. 146 minutes of boyhood adventures minus "real" girl stuff is what Farhan Akhtar dexterously weaves with superb help from Editing, Cinematography (someone called James West who is truly outstanding) and music. Shankar-Ehsan-Loy score magnificently on BGM but their songs are not that hummable as "Aaj Keee Raaaaat..." (Don). The surprise thats worth the movie's weight in gold is Hrithik Roshan's brief cameo before the interval. Watchable once for the effort and the scale of execution but repeated viewing I doubt. Shah Rukh fans can atleast rejoice he is ending 2011 better than what he struck you in the middle with.

Business Magazines and Business Journalism

Like pigs sniffing truffles from afar, I chase down any book on stockmarket or a magazine that claims to know the "secret". Sadly, then, I chronicle the rise and fall of stockmarket magazines in India. Of course, you always had magazines like "Business Today", "Business India" (can you believe it is still there?) and "Business World" with occasional banter about the markets but magazines and tabloids on stockmarkets were always springing up from nowhere and capsizing in bad times. "Fortune India", "Intelligent Investor" (now known as "Outlook Money"), "Shree Profit", "MoneyTimes", "Kompella's Portfolio Advice", and one magazine brought out by RR Capital, New Delhi-"Investment Portfolio Watch" or something like that - the list goes on...There are few which survived like "Dalal Street Journal" and "Capital Market" but amongst those which came with fanfare there are few which are edging up sales - "MoneyLife", "Money Today", "Wealth Insight", "Mutual Fund Insight" and "Investor India" (mainly captive to Bajaj Capital). Outlook group started "Outlook Profit" a few years back but now they have closed down with December issue in the same month that saw the release of Vinod Mehta's autobiography "Lucknow Boy"- I keep wondering what led a group with deep pockets like Outlook merge "Outlook Profit" with "Outlook Business". I guess what undid "Profit" was reliance on mostly research reports - in the guise of covering company profiles and market views - sourcing reports by CLSA/Motilal/MS/GS etc. Sourabh Mukherjea was probably the only writer I used to follow in "Outlook Profit" - the rest is ho-hum and below-par or external research content. It was hardly original even if its is informative. Another magazine I suspect is Valueresearch's "MF Insight" - it reeks of paid advertorials - between the mutual funds recommended and the ones advertised. Except for Sanjiv Pandya and Paronjoy Thakurta, there's nothing worth reading really that makes a difference to Advisors. I always treat any report from Research desks released to public with suspicion - if somebody is leaking such reports to public, it means they want to find suckers on the moon. If your research is really that good, you should share with your clients and make them money - or else, it tantamounts to front-running. Amongst the newspapers - my best and foremost is always "BusinessLine"- Investment World - I have not missed an issue since 1994 and it has the best legacy of objective views on the stockmarkets. The fact that IW is edited by my friend is no excuse for not picking a bone with it - it is still a trustworthy source of opinion and analysis on the stock markets.iA leaf out of Businessline's "Investment World" is more than all the future babble that permeates the business & money magazines. There is ET, BS , Mint, DNA Money, and FE but more drivel than insights except the occasional columnist pieces - a'la Ruchir Joshi or Madan Sabnavis or Sanjay Prakash. Almost no magazine covers stock markets with independent thinking and unbiased opinions - except maybe "Capital Market" and to some extent "MoneyLife". Equity Master - the group that runs Quantum Fund is good - but they are trying hard to garner assets and clients in a world dominated by distributors. They send good newsletters but appear like teaser ads for baiting your subscription money for multi-bagger stocks. Instead, rediff.com gives you better insights on markets and asides.The best way to read any of these magazines is to use their data and process through your own prisms of analysis, interpretation, reasoning and conclusions. It is easy for anybody to do that if you see what I mean - ask your searching questions and have "contrary" thinking approach. But I subscribe to all these mags and papers and journals - they keep us anchored to the tenets of filtering the "flat earth news" through your mind. They tell me that in hearing views and news about the markets - you can stand out and go against the grain and still make money. I welcome if anybody has to share any other sources of markets that is different and reliable.