The highlight of the Budget 2015 is not the presentation itself by a Finance Minister who raised sky-high expectations. They may have been barely met as it always happens with most budgets - all stakeholders are seldom happy. The main thing that moved the needle in the budget has been that the NDA government tried to keep distractions to the minimum, kept the flames of hopes around big-bang reforms alive by building around the framework of fiscal policy while engaging on issues of unprecedented international interest - Agriculture, Subsidies and welfare for the poor, Income inequalities, Infrastructure development, and the Make-in-India theme. In that sense, the budget has certainly delivered - in setting the path of economic development in the direction of the right intent. But in dealing with the expectations from the market and the industry and the way it delivered in print, this year’s budget takes a leaf out of what the previous governments usually did over the last decade - keep it skinned to the bone, keep it light and keep minimum jazz in the budget - let the rest build outside the budget. That has been the credo of many Congress budgets and this year is no exception. It is only the media, the journalists and the public at large who await the budget more than their own appraisal results and then, when the budget doesn’t deliver, raise holy hell on the outcome.
The markets are the easiest ones to lick here. Thankfully, the bond markets and forex markets have taken their weekend break but the bazaar didn’t sleep and agonised over the outcome of the budget over the last few weeks - crept up within hours of the budget and then collapsed, then the shorts entered the market as the indices gyrated to the mezzanine interpretations of the semi-literate and the uneducated idiots on the Television who don’t understand the canons of taxation (which is why cigarettes, aereated drinks and drinking water got taxed more) from the canards of inflation and disinflation (Black money curbs are less inflationary than the creation of black money itself), or the contours of fiscal policy (did someone tell you that India has always been pro-cyclical in fiscal policy in the last ten yeas, so if you couldn’t raise excise duties last year it is because growth came to a grinding halt last year and if you had to raise excise duties this year, it is because indirect taxes have dwindled to single digits stupid, so if you don’t raise now, you will never be able to raise again from a lower base of Tax-to-GDP ratio and if you raised it now, you can bet on an economy to rebound which bolsters up taxes) or that fiscal responsibility can be a platitude even if you adhere to fiscal deficit targets on paper so it is okay to have a lower target than a pious threshold of 3.6 per cent which is what the markets expected BJP government to accept but the MoF accepts 3.9 per cent of the GDP for the next year while keeping it at 4.1 per cent for the rest of this fiscal. In the end, however, Sensex finished higher and hopefully, more pundits will grasp the subtle nuances of the budget in the days to come and move on. Markets have seldom got it right on budget day - anyways, does it ever dawn to you that for the last several decades, ITC as a share is the best short on a budget day because tobacco bears the brunt of the indirect tax hikes and yet despite zombie adverts and gross warnings, smokers don’t give up. ITC after today’s carnage would have been the best buy of the season, but I am digressing here (and I don’t own ITC shares may I also disclaim but ITC after yesterday's fall would have been a perfect long to get back into).
The budget needs to be seen from the context of expectations and the efforts to move forward in many ways towards a better and resurgent India. Yes, it may have made TVs cheaper and non-economy fares costlier, it may have made cars and carbonated drinks costlier and the mobile phones and Yoga therapy sessions cheaper but understand the broad direction and the fact that fiscal policy framework is intact - the rest if it hasn’t come your way must be on its way.
- Has it got any serious negatives? Not many, yes the taxes have to go up when India has a huge consumption base and Tax-to-GDP ratio is the best indicator of the same. Last year, they envisaged 10.8% Tax-To-GDP ratio which is hardly achieved because of tax buoyancy going down due to stalled growth and high inflation. So they raised indirect taxes, bulk of them on items which are bound to be price-inelastic (i.e., the buyer doesn’t stop buying at higher prices) like cinema, coke and cigarettes. Service tax has been raised from 12 per cent plus to 14 per cent but this subsumes the education cess earlier incurred with an irritation to use calculator. The logic is simple, India is 65 per cent Services economy in terms of contribution to GDP - so a higher service tax is a small price to get back tax buoyancy and in most cases, service tax is passed on to the consumer of service. If a service is competitive, the tax gets loaded to the consumer, if not, it gets bested - thats the difference between a service and a product. Similarly, increasing duties on cars etc. is good news because it will encourage foreign players to consider setting up ‘make in India’ plants to compete with domestic car players. Of course, the car prices have been depressed for a while and a surge in car sales will happen when the crude oil prices are plummeting. The good part of the budget, to summarise on this point, is that there are no serious negatives - General Tax Avoidance Rule (GAAR) is deferred for another two years; exemptions on Long-Term Capital Gains in equity continue, disparity between tenure of bonds versus Debt Mutual Funds for the purpose of Long-Term Capital Gains remains giving incentives for investors to migrate to taxable and tax-free bonds in the secondary market and no further cesses except on diesel and petrol are considered. In many other areas, there is status quo - which is good news because it shows the commitment to business continuity and stability of policy framework.
- Does it help the poor, promote growth, revive agriculture and infrastructure and help in generation of jobs? Yes, in many ways despite what the likes of Malayalam and Manish Tiwari talk about. The budget already made its intentions to build world-class low-cost homes in all slums in the urban regions which will involve corporates, now it plans to rationalise the benefits of contractual savings like pensions and insurance with linkages to more organised ways of defined contribution schemes with linkages to Health Insurance (Rs.12 premium per annum to get Rs.2 lacs Accidental Death Benefit Insurance) and National Pension Scheme. National Pension Scheme is counting upwards of Rs.73000 crores and getting low-income workers into the ambit of EPF and NPS is going to create efficiencies of scale and access to the best products in the long run. The tax offset upto Rs.4,44,520 of income is a booster to those who earn incomes of under Rs.40k per month. Yes, the middle-class hasn’t got a good deal in the incentives for savings but still access to higher medical insurance is a good initiative to fortify ourselves against unforeseen medical emergencies. Of course, we are disappointed that a fresh approach to looking at building nest eggs for the middle-classes could have been better. There are measures to ensure players to “make in India” with sops linked to investments and capex and there are measures that help set up start-ups, and encourage corporate investments etc. Of course, the corporate income tax reduction from the next financial year will also help in generating capex and employment opportunities for the poor. But there is a catch - the Bankruptcy laws are going to benefit entrepreneurs adopting an American model of capitalism - of hire and fire and re-surface after folding up. While we don’t know the progress of the various small corpus funds of Rs.50 crores set up in last year’s interim budget, this year the focus is better in infrastructure, disinvestment (which has never been part of the budget and anyways happening with a velocity of its own) and agriculture to foster growth and development. Subsidies are now going to be linked in the Aadhar, Jan Dhan and Mobile connection triangle created - which seeks to curb leakages. 17 crore number of such accounts gives a great base to start implementing cash-less direct transfers. The attempt to reinvigorate MNREGA, build a lakh of kilometres in roads etc. augur well for creation of jobs. Initiatives like Mudra Bank and the measures on Infra and agriculture might create positive impact. On the solar and renewables space, the government may do more outside the budget than just making a token mention - because there is focus on not only mega projects but also in encouraging foreign players like China and Japan and US. For example, when a leading company approached the Power Ministry to levy anti-dumping duty on the Chinese, it is reported that the concerned Minister remarked to the owner, “We want 100 times of your capacity, so we want the Chinese to dump their panels in Solar so that the prices will come down in the long run while building world-class capacities.” Thats the approach of BJP government in creating pro-business, pro-big-scale in projects. Hopefully, the budget will clear the decks for more installed power in all sources of energy. The recent tie-up between Dilip Shangvi and Suzlon Energy is another example how the BJP is collapsing friends to create giant scales to compete in the world and also to make India Infrastructure-heavy like China.
- Does it curb inequality and Black Money? On intent, it does but a lot depends on how BJP will crater up the political establishment to move towards Black Money curbs. A new bill may buy more time before the obvious actions like incentivisation of cards for transactions. Both require political will which is not very evident of late in BJP. But on inequality, Chidambaram was wrong in his assessment of the budget. Jaitley fired a salvo which may be the first of sorts amongst G20 countries to impose surcharge for ultra-rich and the high-income earners. This is the Thomas Picketty style of copybook measure which won’t pinch the rich too much. One more complex Act - Wealth Tax Act - goes, which reminds us of the fate of those in the past like the Estate Duty and so on. The fact that Wealth Tax Administration collected Rs.1080 crores last year vis-a-vis Rs.9000 crores expected to be netted from the surcharge shows why Wealth Tax failed. Isn’t this a step in direction of removing inequalities? The BJP unlike the Congress never shies away from taking measures to simplify laws and junk vestiges of colonialism, inaction or canons of Adam Smith that the Western World is trying to shake off. Take the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Memorandum Bill (FRBM). We heard the outcry for BJP’s minor slip in fiscal deficit to 3.9 per cent as against the 3.6 per cent of GDP. How can you keep the fiscal deficit at constant levels when the business and economic cycles change and move away from growth to stagnation? One of the commonly pointed out lacunae in the FRBM, 2003, amended in 2012 is that the deficit could not expand in bad times and the government did not have to generate a surplus in good times. If only the government can undertake fiscal expansion during bad times, NDA government will find it easier today to show higher growth measures and hence slip on the deficit higher, now the leeway as per the Act is just 0.3 per cent per year which is already frowned upon by the critics and the opposition. The government still has to borrow unto Rs.375000 crores in the market putting a slightly upward pressure on the interest rates. But the budget set the tone aggressively stating they will re-look at both the FRBM and the Monetary Policy framework of the RBI - giving a tough message to Raghuram Rajan to cut rates soon.
- Does it have big-bang reforms and attention to detail? To the cynic, they don’t seem evident. But look at examples in the budget which are hidden in clauses not so salient. Like the collapsing of the FDI and Foreign Portfolio Investments, creating an easy trajectory for capital flows to seek quality assets in India. Or, the Gold Monetisation Scheme with its four variants - it can be a game-changer in the long run with an estimated one trillion dollars of gold reserves unofficially held by Indians in their bank lockers and sofa foams. It is time to get the gold out of the closet and recycle it to generate employment and business opportunities. Last year, savings in physical assets like gold and silver were 11 per cent of GDP outweighed 7.3 per cent in financial assets by households. Gold and other valuables slipped from 17 per cent levels but the drift has always been to hoard gold. The scheme will “monetise” our gold for productive uses by giving an option to earn 2 per cent interest on gold deposited in a Metal Account. Suddenly, from TTD to Trivandrum, temples and hoarders of gold may put a beeline to deposit more gold lying under the custody of snakes and officers. Another measure, the move to merge FMC and SEBI as one regulator - giving a filip to the country’s fortunes in becoming a formidable player in capital markets and commodities markets since India produces and exports many of the leading commodities traded on exchanges from Chicago to London. It was on the cards but timing in the budget allows the regulator like SEBI to become stronger. Yet another measure is to deepen bond markets by amending the relevant sections of RBI Act, this year more money has been poured in by the FIIs into the Bond Markets than the stock markets -and the drift makes it clear for investors to move into Corporate Bond market. Another instance of attention to detail: arming the NBFCs (Non-banking finance companies) to seek the refuge of Sarfesi Act in recovering the loan defaulters. This will go a long way in strengthening the financial system because NBFCs comprise 9 per cent of bank deposits and have a sizeable loan book, this measure will bring further efficiency and accountability to the erring defaulters. Measures like these demonstrate the budget looked at issues of pending action. Another big-bang announcement is two-pronged: One, that the the much-awaited Goods Service Tax (GST) is going to be ushered in from 1st April, 2016. And two, as a precursor to that, the budget re-iteraed that the States will now get an unprecedented 42 per cent of the share of taxes - getting the states to the right side of the Central Government is a key to implementing GST. And the budget needs a high five on that.
- Will FIIs like the Budget? Will they put more money in the market? Hard to say, but the FIIs want in summary, macroeconomic stability, fiscal discipline, growth in the economy (now projected at 8-8.5 per cent) and ease of doing business in India (things like relocation of fund management in India not inviting taxes will be liked by them). Both Debt and Equity and now, even Alternative Investments like private equity and real estate seem to be entering a zone of sweet spot in the months to come. Moody’s has already given us retained rating. If the oil prices firm up at these levels (the FM's calculations of the fiscal deficit peg the oil at $70 levels) and stay there for some time, the Budget and its initial fizz will soon be forgotten by the pundits and populace - and India will be back to business mode if BJP works at de-bottlenecking the rest. As long as the government works towards improving the life of the common man in providing better health care, education, and means of livelihood - it has many ways of doing this by enlisting the help of corporates, unleashing the supply-side economics that expands the size of the economy and in the process push the infrastructure in key focus, then growth will always happen. For that the Budget is but a small step - but not the only step. In that sense, this budget is one of the better budgets to come in recent years - it has a great alignment of intent, clarity and the blueprint to make India achieve its economic potential. There maybe misses here and there, but they are not rectifiable in the medium term. What I also appreciate is that for the first time, the FM has acted on many suggestions given in the Economic Survey a few days before the budget. This rarely happens and must be lauded thanks to Arvind Subramanian.
If all the stakeholders of the economy - households, industry and business, consumers, savers and investors understand the cross-implications of the actions proposed in a budget with a 360 degree view and an understanding of how economics work, the future will be better for all of us - and politicians won’t succeed in rabble-rousing us from seeing the reality and the work-at-hand.
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