Don't worry, Economics At Work here!

Would have liked to post a longer note - exciting these times, but time also getting more dearer than petrol. I will make it as short and clear as possible.


Lets talk about Petrol first- I had been saying that we will never stop importing crude and therefore must prioritise that over Gold imports. Petrol price rise has been increased for number of reasons - Rising deficits, escalated rise in crude over the last few months, Rupee depreciation, and need to cut subsidy bills to give some relief to the Oil-marketing companies and also the import bill. This will continue to see rise, if you believe that crude oil prices will continue to be elevated over the coming years. The sooner you understand the economics of oil - the better our reconciliation with the reality, instead of raising ruckus over everything. Our politicians and sometimes, public dont realise that everything is not in the hands of government - your land prices and corruption deals, crony capitalism and MGNREGA schemes and Aarogyasri policies - may all be but eventually market forces will catch up with everything in life thats priced including the five elements - (air)gas, water, fire (energy), earth (sand) and sky (2G/3G).

Lets talk about Gold next. At current prices of gold prices in Rupees, if you invest now, and expect to make a return, beware.If international gold prices shoot up beyond the $1600 t/oz range and go back to $1800 levels and if Rupee appreciates back to Rs.50 to a USDollar, you make "zero" return. Current higher prices of Gold in India are due to Rupee depreciation. In any case, I am not yet done with my diatribe against Gold Merchants - so we will take that up separately. The Budget Bill hasn't cut customs duty but yielded to some other concessions.

Lets now talk about Sensex. At current levels of sensex, and Rupee-Dollar exchange levels, effectively, Sensex is literally trading at 12000-13000 thereabouts because of a 20% fall in Sensex and a 26% fall in Rupee exchange. Thats a colossal opportunity still. The less said, the better here.

Lets talk about the Rupee. There are more factors at work including the relationship between Euro/Dollar and Dollar/Commodities leading to a market decline in Rupee. Last Financial Year, we attracted $64 of NRI Remiitances - the highest in the world. I am sure everybody is watching even now. Similarly, if 50% of Corporate India hasn't hedged their dollars/euros, those in the export zone will make a bumper profit in the coming quarter. That should be good news. Besides, the RBI still has huge reserves to intervene - I am sure they have the smartest forex team in the world.

Lets examine facts and see things as they really should be seen. And for God's sake, lets understand how Economics really works in our lives. "Satyameva Jayate".

Pawan Kalyan and the Cult of the Colossal in Tollywood

"Gabbar Singh" is on its way to becoming a blockbuster in Tollywood. Its the first superhit for Power Star Pawan Kalyan in eleven years since "Khushi" movie was released. Now, offers are going to pour in for Pawan Kalyan. Goes to prove that Tollywood's obsession with the cult of the colossal is very much on. No other film industry has so much patience in kowtowing to matinee idols who fail to fire in so many movies. Flop after flop after flop, and then one hit, life's back to normal for the Star. The threshold of patience is highest in Tollywood which is ruled by few top heroes. That kind of patience is non-existent for the ones who are not the chosen ones. Many examples, there - Uday Kiran, Tarun, Raja, etc. Of course, they may say, those who have the talent will be always given a chance. True, it holds well but chances and half-chances don't come to the unsupported heroes just like that. You should either have financial backing like Nitin Reddy who delivered a superhit after 14 flops - "Ishq" (Nitin's father is a film distributor Sudhakar Reddy) or you should be like Pawan Kalyan with a monstrous fan following. Either way, the market cap of the top heroes goes on unabated.

The patience with heroes is one thing. The lack of patience with other elements in a Telugu movie - that is something else. Its almost legendary. From heroines to stunt directors, from directors to music directors, patronage is showered mostly on those who give the heroes instant success and stardom - the rest fall by the wayside. I will discuss later in a separate post on the number of music directors who have almost ended up like flashes in the pan. Goes to show that despite making the second-highest number of films in India, Tollywood is still oligopolistic and highly concentrated industry - a few call the shots, and the chosen few get quintals of patience from producers and fans while the rest languish.

Single-Screen Theatres Vs. Multiplexes, again!

Deepak, Odeon join the growing list of theatres in Hyderabad losing out to the incessant march of Realtors tearing down buildings for flats. Deepak theatre in Narayanguda used to be a flop movie theatre - it was always getting renovated and remodelled and we used to occasionally watch movies but never got the limelight of stand-alone theatres like Shanti 70mm and Sudarshan 35mm etc.

Odeon complex sprung up relatively new in the RTC X roads but even three theatres in a portly campus hasn't helped them to make profits. Whats happeening to the single-screen theatres? As 80 per cent of all movies I ever watched were in these kind of theatres - the whistles, the papers splintered, the Rangoli on the floor adjoining the screen, the curtain-raiser and the curtain-closer, the non-discreet tring tring sound of the can opener pinching the cool drinks at interval time, the vent-out of feelings and emotions which is hardly visible in multiplex screens (where everybody is "dignified" and watch movies with a stiff upper lip).

I have mentioned in an older post about the long list of theatres pulled down for property development. One major issue facing these single-screen owners is the low rentals. Last week, I watched "Gabbar Singh" at Devi 70mm and was amazed at the high-quality of sound, visual grandeur and the elevation not to mention the ecstasy and the madness of 1750 people. Between the three segments of ticket prices, the theatre collects Rs.49000/- per show at an average of Rs.28/-. And for this, the management gets an approximate rental of Rs.3 lacs per week, sometimes lower at Rs.2.30 lacs. This is the theatre rental in a prime area of RTC X Roads which is the heart of Nizam area. In the plush single-screen theatres of Kukatpally, the rentals are close to Rs.1.50-1.80 lacs per week. So, in a year of 52 weeks, the rentals come to Rs.1.56 crs. Thats the income of these theatres. You will be aghast to know that these rentals are not even close to what Marriage Halls earn in a day. Even if the marriage halls are vacant for 150 days in a year, they give better rentals than Cinema Halls.

No wonder, cinema hall owners with vast acres are merrily converting their properties for development. Sudarshan 70mm, near RTC X Roads, already converted into Housing complex is charging Rs.1.00 crore for each flat. What ails the single-screen theatres is a combination of many factors - 1.Apathy of film Producers 2.Slab System of Rentals (which encourages big-star movies) 3.Fear of falling occupancies - which makes them hang on to poor rentals 4. Falling patronage of A-class crowds 5. Low Financial Reserves to recreate Multiplex Screens. For e.g the owners of Sangeet 70mm had a gala time for so many years, but eventually they lost out to multiplexes and had to seek huge loans and capital to begin the ongoing work on multiplex in Secunderabad. On the other hand, Tivoli/Lamba complex was created as a fine multiplex lookalike with better planning and fiscal management.

Single-screen theatres wont fully die down but unless they have better vision and planning and help from Film Producers Council, the writing is on the wall. I can't resist ending this piece without rendering an old joke about Deepak cinema. One day, former Chief Minister late T Anjaiah was passing by Deepak theatre and saw the board "Under Renovation". He remarked to his Secretary who read the board - "Oh I see, its an English movie."

Zero-Reserve Bank of India?

Last year, we prided ourselves in becoming a select club-nation of having a sign for Rupee. Today, that Rupee sign is showing exceptional weakness. Not only has the Rupee coin been losing its purchasing power (by way of relentless march of inflation), figuratively it has become as small as a Char-Anna (Re.0.25) coin. Check the erstwhile one rupee coin, it is the same sized as a ten-rupee coin. Che...ck out the latest one rupee coin, it is co-axial as a 25 paise coin. And today, a rupee touched 54.26 to a US Dollar. One of India's best companies - HDFC is downgraded - and its weightage in MSCI universe pruned from 6.2% to 3.2%. Forex Reserves of India used to be closer to $450 Billion - a figure which made Reserve Bank of India called euphemestically as Foreign Reserve Bank of India. Now, excluding this week's intervention, the reserves dwindled to $293 Billion. Maybe Reserve Bank of India, aided by governance deficit in the country, will be called Zero-Reserve Bank of India. Or just Bank of India.

"Gabbar Singh" Movie Review (Telugu)

"Gabbar Singh" is the name of  India's most entertaining villain from the immortal movie "Sholay". It surprises me why nobody ever thought of the title "Gabbar Singh" considering the phenomenal following Amjad Khan has had for portraying that character. Pawan Kalyan has now starred in the movie "Gabbar Singh" which is a a remake of "Dabanng". Director Harish Shankar, a protege of RamGopal Varma, adapted the movie "Dabanng" and the script penned by Dileep Shukla, altered some crucial characters in the original film to suit Telugu nativities and packed a punchy and boisterous output. Its a thoroughly entertaining and hugely likeable story that will regale all audiences, especially Pawan Kalyan fans who are famished for a decade searching for that elusive hit. They've had a half-chance with "Jalsa" but now they can feast on the dollops of fun and frolic and the ruckus and laughter riot created by Pawan Kalyan almost single-handedly. I rate this movie a few notches above this year's "Businessman" because of wholesome fare and masala entertainment thats quite neat.


Of course, the story of a cop who acts like a goon must be unappealing for many in the society. But so be it - if you liked "Dabanng", you better like this one too. I even dare say, to all my Hindi friends, to try this movie - you will be pleasantly surprised at the quality of monstrous fun, action and comedy created in "Gabbar Singh". I find it as good as the original and refreshingly cooler than "Dabanng." Its a coup for a remake. Credit must go to the whole team - Editor/Dialogue-writer (Director himself)/Cinematographer/Choreographer - for a clean output. DeviSri Prasad once again scores hummable and foot-tapping songs that will set crowds  foot-loose; his BGM score-ability is also becoming an additional strength, of late. (Which makes him a sought-after BGM specialist like Mani Sharma or AR Rahman). After a long time, I found songs where Pawan was at ease in dancing as much as his other family kin, new and old. Shruti Hassan may have got lucky in the movie with the role as she doesn't have the same cuteness and star-struck appeal of Sonakshi Sinha despite donning the same costumes. She gets to sing lines in only one of the many songs. Malaika Arora, who stars in the "Kevvu Keka" looked better and dignified aftera long time - otherwise she can grate on you.

Easily, Pawan Kalyan's performance is the best and the brightest in the movie - he shines in every frame, packs a punch in every fight and dialogue and shows a remarkable resilience in lifting his own fortunes with one fiery salvo in this film. The role gives him the luxury of showing all the shades of a villain, hero, comedian and a mature character actor who can occasionally step back for others to hog the limelight. The "Anthakshari" scene with criminals post-interval will get more eyeballs than the item song - it is well-crafted and seat-shifting laughter. For all those who have given up on watching Pawan Kalyan (including myself), its time for lot of "Khushi" and some gum for this film. Dialogues by Harish Shankar sound incredibly classy while awakening massive "fan" shouts. If remakes are made like this, you can buy any originals for any price. Well done, Gabbar Singh.

"Breakout Nations" by Ruchir Sharma

"Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles" by Ruchir Sharma published by Penguin India. Price Rs.599.00. pp. 292.

Nonfiction interests me more than fiction. Naturally, I am delighted to introduce a book of nonfiction thats creating records in India and the world. "Breakout Nations" by Ruchir Sharma is a super-racy book giving the last word on Emerging Markets, Frontier Markets and all the nations that are trying to make it to the cut in between. Who is Ruchir Sharma? His title reads as Head of Emerging Market Equities, Morgan Stanley. But for readers of "The Economic Times", Ruchir is a well-known writer on subjects of Economics. Infact, I think Ruchir's speciality is the sweet spot between Social History, Geopolitics and Economic Affairs and most often, the vicissitudes of the capital markets are self-evident in the overlap between these affairs. And Ruchir is best equipped to write on these matters. I always thought (and now a bird in Mumbai confirms) that Ruchir Sharma is recruited by Morgan Stanley only because of his ability to write on complex subjects intertwined as above and not because he has some great degrees at Yale or Wharton or that he can decode the formulae in financial mathematics or excel sheets.


Ruchir Sharma is MS's answer to other guys who can write very well on capital markets who are held in regard by the Icons of High Street Finance. Peter Bernstein (he passed away in 1995), David Darst (again from Morgan Stanley who wrote a treatise on Asset Allocation), Barton Biggs (Morgan Stanley, yet again, who wrote on the who-and-how aspects of sharing the spoils of the World War-II). Then of course, we have Jim O Neil (Goldman Sachs - the original guy who coined BRIC with Roopa Purushottaman before Roopa was lured by our own Kishore Biyani - it happens only in India!). Ruchir Sharma is different because he uses a whole lot of qualitatative yardsticks in analysing data pertaining to who will get past the round two of the next group of nations to "break out" of the orbit of middle-income trap and make the leap into the developed markets. Ruchir Sharma makes many statisitical inferences, fine examples, anecdotes and similes, cruel objectivity, and laser-sharp observations on countries from China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, South Africa to Turkey, and other frontier nations in the continents of South/Latin America, Asia, Eastern Europe, Middle East and of course, Africa. Its breezy and page-turning even for the unitiated in matters of Economics and financial markets.

Ruchir has been writing for "Newseek" and "The Economic Times" for the past 20 years and has been kicking tyres in some part of the developing world for atleast a week of every month of those 20 years. He is most qualified, therefore, to talk with conviction interlaced with consummate ease on why and what aspects are appealing about these markets. He also writes on what aspects are not. Maybe, he has a say in the rejigging of the MSCI universe of stocks across the globe from South Korea to Turkey and from South Africa to Mexico. As someone who has the license to get under the skin of every country which wants to be the next or the new G-7 nation in some time, Ruchir does a fabulous job in giving a National Geographic -equivalent picture of every nation on the radar of the FII, Endowments of developed world and the Foreign Individual Investors. I am amazed at the insights the book gives in one read about China, Brazil, Indonesia and even about our own India. Rightly so, he gives India a 50: 50 chance to be counted as a breakout nation. Swaminathan Anklesaria Aiyer, my second-most favorite columnist from "Economic Times" has already written his repartee to Ruchir in the previous week's column in The Times. But Ruchir makes a few stunning, off-beat observations about India which should make policy-makers worry and middle-classes wary. He says, bulk of India's youth get carried away by either jobs in government or Maoist movements because of growing inequalities between the rich and the poor. And unlike in China, where the top Forbes Billionaires keep changing every few years and also their combined networth is capped at $10 Billion or so, in India, much to the chagrin of the poor and the oppressed, the same list of Billionaires is displayed year after year since the 1990s and the combined networth is in excess of $70 Billion while India boasts of probably the lowest per capital income amongst all developing nations and widening inequalities. There are other telling points, mostly objective about India and China.In fact, Ruchir's commentary on China can rattle the most die-hard bulls of that country. (Jim Rogers might re-look at the title of his book on China -"A Bull In a China Shop"). I think, Ruchir has pre-empted the "India Today" magazine's latest survey on the arrogant South India vs. the Persevering North India.

Ruchir makes some outstanding denouements  on the new headwinds of world trade that call for a lot of economic negotiations between the affluent and the emerging nations. Ruchir, by virtue, of his being in a chair to hobnob with the heads of state as well as head-honchos of corporations, is able to distill a range of reports, surveys (some of them outright exclusive) and put a fascinating menu of options for Intelligent Investors of any country. He doesn't take the burden of making hypothetical statements that needed to be proved. Instead, he gives an eclectic but largely concatenated dosage of interesting and disparate data points to drive home a point that is hard to disagree with. Maybe he is good at story-telling but this is a book that concerns four-fifths of humanity in the most convincing fashion. It has few flaws and some unprovable truths but largely, the content is open-ended to let these nations decide in a passing parade who will need what to cross the rubicon. Antoine Van Agtmael was the first guy who coined the phrase "Emerging Markets", then wrote a book "Emerging Markets Century". It was like a premature baby. Ten years back, Jim O Neil wrote BRIC report - this allowed the toddler nations to feast and grow with a 450 per cent jump in the FII allocation to these countries. Now, the teenagers are turning brash and feeling self-important and simultaneously, many toddlers are crying for attention thats legitimate. Ruchir Sharma's new book is a good wakeup call to all of them - an honest and objective, intelligent and readable report card.

Penguin publishers tell me this book is already hit the second print run within one month of launch. This is going to be the best-selling Nonfiction book for 2012. Well done Ruchir.

AP crosses Rs.25000 crores Income Tax collections, so what?

Recently, the AP Income Tax Department (AP Circle) has celebrated a milestone in Income Taxes collected from the state of Andhra Pradesh. Rs.25000 crores is the total sum of income tax collections which include, inter alia, everything from corporate income taxes, individual taxes, companies paying Minimum Alternative Tax, Dividend Income, Capital Gains, Income from Business/Profession as well as a good chunk of Salary and Pension Incomes. From the viewpoint of various sources of income tax, the department may not have fully deciphered the potential.
But lets understand the reasons for this elation before we flesh out details of whether we need to pat ourselves or feel there's room for higher mobilisations: AP has become the 3rd state after Maharashthra and Tamil Nadu to cross Rs.25000 crores. clocking a 24.8 per cent growth against a national average of 23 per cent in tax collections over the previous year. While the numbers for Maharasthtra and Tamil Nadu are not known,  Rs.25000 crores is impressive considering that the total Income Tax Collections for the previous year as per the latest Economic Survey 2011-12 is pegged at Rs.5,25,000 crores. From that viewpoint, that is almost 4.76 per cent of the national collection. Sounds impressive but look closer, you will find the segments of collection may leave a lot to be desired - atleast for the IT officials from a state which was growing at above 9 per cent during the golden years of 1995-2005 but is now slipping below. We have already seen the latest India Today's survey of the arrogant South underperforming in Economic Growth Rates compared to the diligent North catching up. But thats another point which can be debated later.
Of the total Rs.525000 crores., more than 68.5% is from corporate income tax. Only Rs.165000 odd crores is the contribution from Individual Income Taxes.  Hyderabad, despite having over 700  listed companies out of the 8500 odd stocks on NSE/BSE doesn't have a noteable presence that can pull the weight on the Indices like Sensex/Nifty (only one company or so in the bellweather indices). Except one or two companies, there is hardly a presence that can make the tax tally anywhere close to the tally of companies based in Mumbai Circle or Chennai Circle or even Kolkata or Bengaluru. We are not even talking about the circles in National Capital Region. Point is, even if you add up all the taxes paid by the listed companies in AP whether as Advance/Income Tax, it will not be close to the tax paid by a company like, say, ITC. Also, it is likely that most of the top corporates in listed and unlisted space are headquartered in Mumbai - which is where, taxes  eventually get paid afterall. AP is not leading the country in other parameters which can make it get counted for its past glories. We score a diminishing picture of our past self in a range of parameters like Gross Capital Formation, Per Capital Income,  Literacy Rate, School Dropout rates  (which determine the employability rates), etc.
To make matters worse, most of the leading companies of national fame except Pharmaceutical industry are either outside AP or re-locating their hubs to other national and international locations. You cant win the Income Tax sweepstakes with just a huge base of employees.
There are other quallitative factors which will determine, inter alia, whether the cake of Income Tax collections is going to go up largely in the coming years. You can guage this by asking some simple questions: Are we creating the right Investment climate for New Entrepreneurs to start industry in AP? Are most of the state Industrialists increasing their footprint in the state of AP or are they showing inclination to invest outside AP and maybe outside India itself? Is there a concentration of just one city instead of several top cities in AP and also simultaneous and harmonious development of tier-2 towns? (You don't have to read Sri Krishna Report to answer this question - we know how many cities are there to count as having arrived in AP besides Hyderabad).Is there a good skill migration happening in the state for more and more people escaping the poverty trap and moving into the semi-skilled and skilled and urban modes of employment or is there a disturbing tendency of farmers staying put in farming activities? (which means the  base will never go up and this may be because of free and guaranteed entitlements from the state government keeping farmers anchored to agriculture-related activities). Is the State attracting new talent in Industry and Service sectors? How is the FDI related Equity Inflows into the state? Are they showing an increasing trend or a decreasing trend? For example, between 2008-2011, AP received a mere five percent of the total inflows in terms of FDI in US Dollars compared with 19 per cent for Delhi and NCR Region and 35 per cent for Maharashtra region. Even states like Gujarat and Karnataka have received a tad more FDI commitments compared with AP.
What is the whole point of this excursion in statistics? Do not get misled by sweeping statements or tall claims of IT collections. They do not mean anything or signify a quantum jump in qualitative improvements in overall health/infrastructure/employment/investment/Economic Growth parameters of AP. AP Income Tax circle must be commended for driving the figures but they will be better off assessing  the segments of income tax in detailto guage if there ar e any outlandish collections or seasonal benefits or sheer luck in getting to a figure that still doesn't appear  too flattering. It could be mostly comprising of a few companies here and there, or a a handful of politicians getting the urge to come clean on their assets and liabilities, or  on the back of lagged investment cycle of corporates who are slowly re-locating/reducing footprint to  elsewhere- like Microsoft, Satyam Mahindra, Infosys. One has to also see whether a lot of money is moving out of the country into tax havens or extractive  industries outside India. If taxes are as certain as death, how can the tax man be celebratory at a mere milestone? He or She has miles to go before we sleep?